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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Friday, 24 April 20
CHINA COAL PRODUCER YANZHOU COAL POSTS 9.6 PCT RISE IN 2019 NET PROFIT - XINHUA
China’s major coal producer Yanzhou Coal Mining Co., Ltd. said Thursday that its net profit saw a 9.6 percent rise in 2019.
Th ...
Tuesday, 21 April 20
INDONESIA ACCOUNTS FOR 19% OF JAPAN'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
Coal trade in Asia is proving remarkably resilient this year, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19.
We have seen China&r ...
Tuesday, 21 April 20
COVID-19: CHARTERPARTY MATTERS FOR SHIPOWNERS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Whilst the plight of cruise ships, stranded off shore with sick passengers and crew, may be dominating media headlines, t ...
Monday, 20 April 20
SUPRAMAX: A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING AN INDONESIA COAL RUN TO CHINA AT $4400 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week was the strongest period seen for the Capesize market in several months. All routes globally succumbed to improved sentiment ...
Friday, 17 April 20
PANDEMIC TO BRING ASIA'S 2020 GROWTH TO HALT FOR 1ST TIME IN 60 YEARS - IMF: REUTERS
Asia’s economic growth this year will grind to a halt for the first time in 60 years, as the coronavirus crisis takes an “unprecedented ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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