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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
OPEC released its much anticipated April monthly report.
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, rec ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SAUDI ARABIA'S MAY 2020 OSPS FOR CRUDE EXPORTS BODE WELL FOR ASIAN REFINERS - WOOD MACKENZIE
On 13 April, Saudi Arabia announced the Official Selling Prices (OSPs) for its May crude oil exports. The new OSPs speak volumes about Saudi Arabia ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SEABORNE COAL PRICES UNDER PRESSURE AS DEMAND SOFTENS IN CHINA, INDIA - CLYDE RUSSELL
Worrying signs are emerging for coal exporters to the world’s biggest markets in Asia, as top buyers China and India move to favour domestic ...
Thursday, 16 April 20
THERMAL POWER SECTOR FACES BLEAK SCENARIO POST-COVID SITUATION - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The centre should take a fresh look at coal-energy value chain as the sector tops the chart on loan defaults.
Covid-19 may have serv ...
Thursday, 16 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE FALLS 5 YUAN PER TONNE - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price fell by 5 yuan (about 70 U.S. cents) per tonne during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Co ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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