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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Friday, 01 May 20
LUKOIL SHARES LUBRICANT EXPERIENCE AFTER FIRST 100 DAYS OF OPERATION ON VLSFO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
After 100 days of VLSFO operation, LUKOIL Marine Lubricants is sharing recent experience on VLSFO operation with NAVIGO M ...
Wednesday, 29 April 20
OIL CLOSES IN ON PEAK OVERSUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
Are we now deep in the abyss? Up to our necks in it, if the oil price is any guide. Brent has now tested sub-US$20/bbl in this downturn and WTI sub ...
Monday, 27 April 20
INCIDENT INVESTIGATION: SEARCH FOR THE CAUSE, NOT THE VILLAIN - GARD
Incident investigations often conclude with placing the blame for an incident on the crew. Causes of the incidents are usually identified as proced ...
Monday, 27 April 20
A 58,000DWT VESSEL WAS FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY WC INDIA, AT $4,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The tide turned this week for the Capesize market, as voyage rates registered dramatically falling fuel costs. This was led primarily ...
Sunday, 26 April 20
STRONGER BUNKER PRICES FAIL TO RALLY FREIGHT MARKET - FIS
VLSFO bunker prices rebounded by $22.50 to $229/mt in the port of Singapore but failed to turn around the spot freight market.
Some ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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