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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Monday, 04 May 20
U.S. ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION FALL 39.4% YEAR ON YEAR IN THE WEEK ENDED APRIL 25 - EIA
Estimated U.S. coal production totaled about 8.6 million short tons (MMst) For the week ended April 25, 2020, says EIA in its latest report.
E ...
Saturday, 02 May 20
SUPRAMAX: ASIA, STRONGER NUMBERS - A 55.000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA IN THE MID $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A tepid week for the big ships, as macro concerns continued to weigh heavily on the index. All of the major voyage routes lost value, ...
Friday, 01 May 20
KOSPO INVITED OFFER FOR 5600 NCV COAL FOR Q3 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) steam coal for Boryeong Power ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY ABOUT 8% IN 2020,THE LARGEST DROP SINCE WORLD WAR II - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by about 8% in 2020, the largest drop since World War II, with coal use declining in virtually every sector of ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY 8% IN Q1 2020 RELATIVE TO Q1 2019 - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by 8% in Q1 2020 relative to Q1 2019. This significant drop was driven by lower demand in the electricity sect ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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