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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Monday, 04 May 20
U.S. ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION FALL 39.4% YEAR ON YEAR IN THE WEEK ENDED APRIL 25 - EIA
Estimated U.S. coal production totaled about 8.6 million short tons (MMst) For the week ended April 25, 2020, says EIA in its latest report.
E ...
Saturday, 02 May 20
SUPRAMAX: ASIA, STRONGER NUMBERS - A 55.000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA IN THE MID $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A tepid week for the big ships, as macro concerns continued to weigh heavily on the index. All of the major voyage routes lost value, ...
Friday, 01 May 20
KOSPO INVITED OFFER FOR 5600 NCV COAL FOR Q3 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) steam coal for Boryeong Power ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY ABOUT 8% IN 2020,THE LARGEST DROP SINCE WORLD WAR II - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by about 8% in 2020, the largest drop since World War II, with coal use declining in virtually every sector of ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY 8% IN Q1 2020 RELATIVE TO Q1 2019 - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by 8% in Q1 2020 relative to Q1 2019. This significant drop was driven by lower demand in the electricity sect ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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