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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and de ...
Tuesday, 04 August 20
KOEN INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 900K MT OF MIN 5600 NCV COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 260,000 to 300,000 Tons (MT) min. ...
Tuesday, 04 August 20
THE WORLD’S FLEET OF COAL-FIRED POWER STATIONS HAS GOT SMALLER FOR THE FIRST TIME ON RECORD, WITH MORE CAPACITY RETIRED IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2020 THAN THE AMOUNT OPENED - IEA
This is according to the latest Global Coal Plant Tracker (GCPT) results by Global Energy Monitor (GEM), which we completed last month and report f ...
Monday, 03 August 20
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION, WHICH HAS DECLINED SINCE ITS 2007 PEAK, FELL TO ITS LOWEST POINT IN APRIL 2020 - EIA
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) most recent Monthly Energy Review, the United States consumed 6.5 quadrillion ...
Monday, 03 August 20
LOW OIL PRICE AND CORONA VIRUS HIT SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA OIL PRODUCERS - FITCH RATINGS
The collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus shock is worsening the fiscal and external balances of sub-Saharan African oil producers, Fitch Rati ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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