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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Wednesday, 12 August 20
THE COAL MARKET IN ITALY - ASSOCARBONI
Italy, which in 2019 reported a decrease in thermal coal imports, with a volume of 7,5 million tons (-32% compared to 11 million tons in 2018), whi ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 WILL DECREASE BY 29% FROM 2019 LEVELS TO 502 MMST - EIA
U.S. coal consumption, which dropped to its lowest point since April, totaled 95 MMst in the second quarter of 2020.
EIA expec ...
Tuesday, 11 August 20
BHP COAL ASSETS WORTH A BILLION LESS THAN JUST TWO YEARS AGO - IEEFA
Another global investor, the UK’s biggest public pension fund NEST, has withdrawn funds from BHP this week because the company is profiting & ...
Monday, 10 August 20
COAL IMPORT DROPS 43% IN JULY OWING TO HIGH STOCKPILE AT PITHEADS, PLANTS - PTI
“The market participants seem to have adopted a wait and watch approach and are currently looking for a direction. We do not expect to see an ...
Saturday, 08 August 20
GLOBAL COAL POWER PUZZLE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Global Energy Monitor’s latest Global Coal Plant Tracker has put another nail in the coffin for the coal-carrying fleet with its finding that ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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