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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Friday, 07 August 20
PEABODY'S $1.42 BILLION WRITE-DOWN CONCEDES COAL MINES HAVE LITTLE VALUE AND DIM FUTURE - IEEFA
Trouble at biggest mine in Powder River Basin speaks volumes about state of industry
Peabody Energy, the world’s largest priva ...
Thursday, 06 August 20
SUPRAMAX MARKET CONTINUED SIDEWAYS TREND, AND LITTLE INSPIRING NEWS APPEAR - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is presently a small correction in rates, but overall levels are up from previous week mainly due to increased demand in the Eas ...
Thursday, 06 August 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITING BIDS FOR MIN 3,600-MAX 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) inviting bids for 80,000 Tons (MT) Min 3,600~Max 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal f ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
NO NEW MINING LICENSES - A REMINDER TO GOVERNORS IN INDONESIA - SSEK
Indonesia’s acting Director General of Mining and Coal (“DGMC”) has issued a letter to the country’s provincial Governors t ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
AUGUST 2020 HBA HITTING ITS LOWEST LEVELS IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of August plunged 30.73% YoY, hitting its lowest levels in history and highlighting ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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