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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 17 December 19
BACK TO FUTURE FOR BUSH AS AUSTRALIA CONSIDERS MOVING AWAY FROM COAL NEWCASTLE - HERALD
Looking backwards could show the way forward for regional communities planning for a future beyond mining.
One of Australia’s ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.01 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points, down 0.01 percent week on week.
The index, released by China Taiy ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
YEAR 2019: IT IS LOOKING SET THAT THIS YEAR WILL BE ONE OF THE SLOWEST IN TERMS OF DRY BULK NEWBUILDING ACTIVITY - ALLIED
With just two weeks remaining before 2019 comes to an end, it is now looking set that this year will be one of the slowest in terms of dry bulk new ...
Monday, 16 December 19
ULTRAMAX: A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, FOR RE-DELIVERY TO CHINA AT $11,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was one-way traffic for the Capesize market this past week, with all routes giving up value. While downward momentum may have slowe ...
Monday, 16 December 19
THE OUTLOOK FOR U.S. THERMAL COAL IS INCREASINGLY STRESSED - MOODY'S
- Slowing global economic growth, trade tensions will continue to exert influence
- Coal's secular decline will persist in 2020
...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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