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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 07 December 19
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL PRICE SURGE, WHILE OTHERS LANGUISH, IS TROUBLING - REUTERS
Coal prices around the world are gently sliding as demand from top importers such as China, India and even Europe remains subdued amid a so far mil ...
Saturday, 07 December 19
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL, THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX REMAINED IN POSITIVE MODE, DESPITE SOME AREAS LACKING FRESH ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week the Capesize market maintained healthy earnings, as an end of year surge took the Capesize 5TC back up to $25,202 by mid-wee ...
Friday, 06 December 19
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FOR DECEMBER INCREASES BY US 3 CENTS MOM
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Thursday, 05 December 19
IMO 2020 IS ABOUT TO GET REAL - GAVIN THOMPSON
As I write this edition of the APAC Energy Buzz from my desk in Singapore I can see ships. Lots of ships. No surprise given that Singapore is among ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
FITCH RATINGS: CASH FLOW GENERATION TO SLOW DOWN FOR INDONESIAN COAL MINERS
Fitch Ratings' negative outlook on the Indonesian coal-mining sector reflects our view of weaker cash flow generation on account of declining c ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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