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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Sunday, 22 December 19
TRADING PLACES FOR 2020 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
In the sea of 2020 predictions, Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions sail their own very unique course. For nearly 20 years the Danish investme ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasi ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling t ...
Friday, 20 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 December 19
COAL POWER GENERATION CONTINUES TO DECLINE IN GERMANY: DESTATIS, XINHUA REPORTED
The volume of electricity generated in coal-fired power plants in Germany decreased “markedly” by 37 percent to 34 billion kilowatt-hou ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
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