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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 25 August 20
INDIA'S IMPORTS FALL AS LOCKDOWNS IMPACT THE POWER AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS - REPORT
India is the world’s second largest thermal coal consumer and importer, importing an estimated 211 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019.&nb ...
Monday, 24 August 20
A COMBINATION OF DEVELOPMENTS DROVE THE FALLOFF COAL PRICES - CHIEF ECONOMIST’ OFFICE, AUSTRALIA
China, rising domestic production combined with subdued power demand;
India, a lockdown coupled with government directives that fav ...
Monday, 24 August 20
AUSTRALIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP FROM AN ESTIMATED $20 BILLION IN 2019-20 TO $16 BILLION IN 2020-21: REPORT
Thermal coal spot prices have fallen sharply as the impact of COVID-19 drives a contraction in seaborne trade for only the second time this century ...
Saturday, 22 August 20
REPORT SEES INDIA’S RELIANCE ON THERMAL POWER DROPPING TO 50% IN 2021, 43% IN 2026 - ET ENERGY | IEEFA
India’s dependence on thermal power will reduce to 50 per cent by 2021-22 and 43 per cent by 2026-27 on the back of renewable energy (RE) cap ...
Friday, 21 August 20
323 MILLION ELECTRIC VEHICLES WILL BE ON THE ROADS BY 2040 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Electric vehicle (EV) sales are expected to reach 45 million units per year by 2040, with a total global EV stock of 323 million, according to new ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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