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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 27 August 20
BANGLADESH POWER MINISTRY SEEKING AUTHORITY TO CANCEL 13,000 MW OF PROPOSED COAL-FIRED CAPACITY - BUSINESS STANDARD
In a bid to move away from dirty energy, the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources is seeking the prime minister’s approval to conv ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
ASIAN COAL PRICES LIKELY TO REMAIN DEPRESSED SAY TRADERS, ANALYSTS - REUTERS
Asian coal prices, which have fallen around 25% this year as power demand slumped due to the coronavirus outbreak, are unlikely to move higher befo ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
WORLD COAL EXPORTS: INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HAVE COME UNDER PRESSURE AS THERMAL COAL PRICES WEAKEN - REPORT
Indonesia’s exports to decline sharply from record highs
Indonesia is the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, sellin ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country&rsqu ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
PENDING SOUTH KOREA LEGISLATION COULD FORCE HALT TO COUNTRY’S COAL PLANT EXPORT DEALS - KOREA ECONOMIC DAILY
South Korea’s parliament looks set to pass new legislation to ban financing on foreign coal power projects, putting all overseas coal-fired p ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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