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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing challenging moments, markets have been violently disrupted and it will become even more visible later on that governments around the world will experience major shifts in their respective political and economic power.
As we have already witnessed, Brent prices are experiencing their lowest levels in 17 years, closing at $27.2 per barrel last Friday, whereas West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) closed at $23 per barrel. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the price of Brent, which is the international benchmark, “could dip as low as $20 per barrel and test operational stress levels”.
A week ago, Bank of America warned that the US is close to a new major recession due to the worldwide spread of the Covid-19. Simultaneously, oil producing countries keep on increasing their production at record levels amidst a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, after OPEC+ (OPEC and Russia) failed to come to a consensus over additional production cuts. Official selling prices lowered by as much as 20% have been also used as “weapons” in this price war.
At the moment, global demand for oil hovers around 100 million barrels per day. Yet, as consumption is gradually decreasing due to the tremendous economic shake of the COVID-19 and the subsequent containment measures, demand could possibly plunge an additional 20% according to some first estimations. The final outcome of this crisis still remains unknown; however, certain analysts reassure that some more optimistic scenarios are possible to play out. According to Andreas de Vries, advisor at Saudi Aramco, the successful containment policies against the Covid-19 pandemic and the implementation of stimulus packages could stem the secondary and tertiary effects on the economy.
The oil market status quo calls for an a pragmatic resolution aiming to terminate the price war. Nevertheless, a termination of the price war will not be able to push prices back to $60 plus per barrel, with levels around $40 seeming more realistic if major producers come to an agreement. As de Vries highlights, even in the best-case scenario, the average crude price will still remain considerably below what most producing countries need in order to successfully balance their respective budgets. Indeed, the extent of the virus containment measures that are currently being implemented will affect to a massive degree a number of sectors that are heavyweights for the economies of many of the producing nations, like tourism for example.
At the same time there is a growing number of voices that warns for a series of major economic consequences, with the worst-case scenario being a global economy devastated by a wave of continuous bankruptcies. We are seeing significant economic stimulus announced around the world, with the U.S. expected to reach soon a deal on a $2 trillion coronavirus aid, but the effectiveness of the implementation of these packages remains uncertain at this stage. A failure of these stimulus measures to support vital sectors of the economies around the world will lead to a prolonged crisis that could prove worse than the big downturn of 2008, but for now let’s remain reservedly optimistic and hope it doesn’t come to that.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of ...
Friday, 20 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 20 March 20
OIL PRICES COULD FALL BELOW ZERO: ANALYST - FOX BUSINESS
Plunging oil prices could be headed a lot lower – possibly below zero, according to one Wall Street analyst.
West Texas Interm ...
Friday, 20 March 20
84% OF FEBRUARY BUNKER SALES IN SINGAPORE ARE LOW-SULPHUR FUELS - BIMCO
Low-sulphur fuels accounted for 84% of total February sales in Singapore, slightly up from 83% in January. The sale of low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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