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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing challenging moments, markets have been violently disrupted and it will become even more visible later on that governments around the world will experience major shifts in their respective political and economic power.
As we have already witnessed, Brent prices are experiencing their lowest levels in 17 years, closing at $27.2 per barrel last Friday, whereas West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) closed at $23 per barrel. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the price of Brent, which is the international benchmark, “could dip as low as $20 per barrel and test operational stress levels”.
A week ago, Bank of America warned that the US is close to a new major recession due to the worldwide spread of the Covid-19. Simultaneously, oil producing countries keep on increasing their production at record levels amidst a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, after OPEC+ (OPEC and Russia) failed to come to a consensus over additional production cuts. Official selling prices lowered by as much as 20% have been also used as “weapons” in this price war.
At the moment, global demand for oil hovers around 100 million barrels per day. Yet, as consumption is gradually decreasing due to the tremendous economic shake of the COVID-19 and the subsequent containment measures, demand could possibly plunge an additional 20% according to some first estimations. The final outcome of this crisis still remains unknown; however, certain analysts reassure that some more optimistic scenarios are possible to play out. According to Andreas de Vries, advisor at Saudi Aramco, the successful containment policies against the Covid-19 pandemic and the implementation of stimulus packages could stem the secondary and tertiary effects on the economy.
The oil market status quo calls for an a pragmatic resolution aiming to terminate the price war. Nevertheless, a termination of the price war will not be able to push prices back to $60 plus per barrel, with levels around $40 seeming more realistic if major producers come to an agreement. As de Vries highlights, even in the best-case scenario, the average crude price will still remain considerably below what most producing countries need in order to successfully balance their respective budgets. Indeed, the extent of the virus containment measures that are currently being implemented will affect to a massive degree a number of sectors that are heavyweights for the economies of many of the producing nations, like tourism for example.
At the same time there is a growing number of voices that warns for a series of major economic consequences, with the worst-case scenario being a global economy devastated by a wave of continuous bankruptcies. We are seeing significant economic stimulus announced around the world, with the U.S. expected to reach soon a deal on a $2 trillion coronavirus aid, but the effectiveness of the implementation of these packages remains uncertain at this stage. A failure of these stimulus measures to support vital sectors of the economies around the world will lead to a prolonged crisis that could prove worse than the big downturn of 2008, but for now let’s remain reservedly optimistic and hope it doesn’t come to that.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 19 March 20
BIMCO REVISES 2020 FORECAST FOR MAIN SHIPPING MARKETS
The coronavirus pandemic is impacting global shipping demand for 2020 negatively. The speed of the virus spread makes it difficult to assess the fu ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED IN 2019 - EIA
In 2019, U.S. coal exports declined to 93 million short tons (MMst), a 20% decrease from the previous year, according to the U.S. Energy Informatio ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
SOUTH KOREA'S KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR MIN 3,700 OR MIN 4,200 NCV LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), has issued an international tender for total 160,000 MT (±10%) (80,000 x 2 Panamax) of ...
Wednesday, 18 March 20
DRY BULK: INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES PROVIDING A BIG BOOST IN THE EAST WHERE SENTIMENT FOR HANDIES ALSO STARTED IMPROVING - INTERMODAL
The BDI ended last week with small gains on the back of an encouraging number of cargoes out of key trading regions that helped sustain the reserve ...
Wednesday, 18 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite we all knew about the Covid-19 weeks ago, few could realize the size of the thread until the last few days. The examples of China and Italy ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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