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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing challenging moments, markets have been violently disrupted and it will become even more visible later on that governments around the world will experience major shifts in their respective political and economic power.
As we have already witnessed, Brent prices are experiencing their lowest levels in 17 years, closing at $27.2 per barrel last Friday, whereas West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) closed at $23 per barrel. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the price of Brent, which is the international benchmark, “could dip as low as $20 per barrel and test operational stress levels”.
A week ago, Bank of America warned that the US is close to a new major recession due to the worldwide spread of the Covid-19. Simultaneously, oil producing countries keep on increasing their production at record levels amidst a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, after OPEC+ (OPEC and Russia) failed to come to a consensus over additional production cuts. Official selling prices lowered by as much as 20% have been also used as “weapons” in this price war.
At the moment, global demand for oil hovers around 100 million barrels per day. Yet, as consumption is gradually decreasing due to the tremendous economic shake of the COVID-19 and the subsequent containment measures, demand could possibly plunge an additional 20% according to some first estimations. The final outcome of this crisis still remains unknown; however, certain analysts reassure that some more optimistic scenarios are possible to play out. According to Andreas de Vries, advisor at Saudi Aramco, the successful containment policies against the Covid-19 pandemic and the implementation of stimulus packages could stem the secondary and tertiary effects on the economy.
The oil market status quo calls for an a pragmatic resolution aiming to terminate the price war. Nevertheless, a termination of the price war will not be able to push prices back to $60 plus per barrel, with levels around $40 seeming more realistic if major producers come to an agreement. As de Vries highlights, even in the best-case scenario, the average crude price will still remain considerably below what most producing countries need in order to successfully balance their respective budgets. Indeed, the extent of the virus containment measures that are currently being implemented will affect to a massive degree a number of sectors that are heavyweights for the economies of many of the producing nations, like tourism for example.
At the same time there is a growing number of voices that warns for a series of major economic consequences, with the worst-case scenario being a global economy devastated by a wave of continuous bankruptcies. We are seeing significant economic stimulus announced around the world, with the U.S. expected to reach soon a deal on a $2 trillion coronavirus aid, but the effectiveness of the implementation of these packages remains uncertain at this stage. A failure of these stimulus measures to support vital sectors of the economies around the world will lead to a prolonged crisis that could prove worse than the big downturn of 2008, but for now let’s remain reservedly optimistic and hope it doesn’t come to that.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 25 March 20
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IS CRUSHING GLOBAL GDP GROWTH - FITCH RATINGS
The coronavirus crisis is crushing global GDP growth according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO) ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
INDONESIA TO CANCEL RULES REQUIRING DOMESTIC SHIPS FOR COAL, PALM EXPORTS : REFINITIV
Indonesia's government will revoke rules requiring exporters of coal and palm oil to use domestic shipping companies for shipments, Coordinatin ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
JAN-FEB 2020, INDONESIA SHIPPED 64.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL, UP +3.4% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of calendar 2019, Indonesia exported 386.4 mln tonnes of coal, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This represents a ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
As countries around the world struggle to take back control of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic the global economy shuts down bit by bit, leaving only ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
THE TRIPLE SHOCK OF CORONAVIRUS IN SHIPPING: WILL IT LAST? - DREWRY
Transport capacity shortages, disruptions to supply chains and inability to plan since late January have been a dangerous combination. But will all ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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