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Tuesday, 17 March 20
IT IS NOW UNQUESTIONABLE THAT 2020 WILL BE A MILESTONE YEAR FOR THE OIL MARKET, AS WELL AS THE WHOLE GLOBAL ECONOMY - ALLIED
 It is now unquestionable that 2020 will be a milestone year for the oil market, as well as the whole global economy. The impact from the COVID-19 outbreak will surely be considerable on oil trade, yet at this point it seems the tanker market has been taken by storm by the Saudi Arabia – Russia dispute on oil production output which has suddenly plunged oil prices to record lows while sending tanker freight rates to brand new highs, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Research.
Yiannis Vamvakas further noted that, the severity of this impact, the time-duration of all these developments, as well as the reaction from key market participants is extremely difficult to predict right now, yet it is worth reviewing some crucial points.
On the production side, Yiannis Vamvakas noted that, last week’s news that Saudi Arabia and Russia could not come to a mutual agreement and would ramp up production was definitely unexpected. Given the weakened global demand levels that have been noted of late, all this seems counterintuitive for both. The fact that these two producer giants could not reach an agreement had as a result Brent oil to slide close to US$33 per barrel, while WTI reached a price of just above US$31 per barrel.
Additionally, he said, it is worth mentioning that last week we witnessed the biggest daily oil price loss since the Gulf War of 1991, with a drop of around 25%. The disagreement between OPEC and Russia came after the latter’s refusal to support any further production cuts that OPEC proposed as a measure to counter the effects of the coronavirus outbreak.
According to local sources, Saudi Arabia has already decided to increase its crude production above 10 million bpd next month from its current level of 9.7 million bpd. Russia, at the same time, has stated that it could lift production as well and that it could cope with low oil prices for up to ten years. Meanwhile the plunge in oil prices below US$40 has had a crucial impact on the US shale oil market. Several key producers in the US have already decreased their drilling plans, while the rig count is expected to fall by more than 45%. All this is a stark reminder of 2014, yet this time around demand figures are not as encouraging, a fact that has further darkened outlook.
On the demand side, Allied Research noted that, the IEA announced that oil demand is expected to decrease in 2020 for the first time in more than a decade. More specifically, forecasts are showing that oil demand will drop by approximately 90,000 bpd, falling to 99.9 million bpd in 2020. The key reason for these developments is the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on several key industries (such as the travel industry). Estimates are showing that jet fuel demand is likely to slump by 11% on an annual basis, from last year’s 7.2 million bpd. Meanwhile, one of the most for now has been Asia which encompasses some of the most significant importers. Current demand for oil in China is estimated to have declined by 1.8m b/d. Yet, given the latest developments, the impact will not be limited there, with Europe and the US now following through. On the positive side, oil consumption is expected to rebound and increase by 2.1 million bpd in 2021.
However, with oil producers now in the midst of a “battle”, market fundamentals are in a constant state of shift. Undoubtedly, the crisis that we are facing will most likely be temporary, but to what extent the market will be “scarred” in the long term is hard to predict right now. It is likely that we will see a robust demand rebound once this have calmed down, but it is difficult to see yet to what extent. For the time being, it looks as though the tanker market is basking in the windfall benefits that have come along, as to how long these benefits will last remains to be seen, Yiannis Vamvakas concluded in its latest weekly analysis report.
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Friday, 06 March 20
SOLID BACKING FOR LNG AS A MARINE FUEL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
When it comes to choosing the best fuel on the near horizon to help the international shipping industry shrink its carbon intensity by 2050, DNV GL ...
Friday, 06 March 20
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AGAIN THIS MONTH
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
PANAMAX: SHIP-OWNERS HAVE MOSTLY BEEN GETTING HIGHER RATES THAN THE LAST DONE - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There is still limited amount of positive news around, with the effects of Corona virus hurting world economy. However, overall average in ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
COAL IMPORTS DOWN IN MAJOR ASIAN MARKETS, AND CORONAVIRUS NOT THE DRIVING FORCE - CLYDE RUSSELL
Asia’s seaborne coal markets stumbled in February and it appears the coronavirus outbreak in China may dodge most of the blame, with the weak ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
SEABORNE COAL'S STRUGGLES IN ASIA ARE MORE THAN JUST CHINA CORONAVIRUS - REUTERS
Asia’s seaborne coal markets stumbled in February and it appears the coronavirus outbreak in China may dodge most of the blame, with the weak ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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