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Tuesday, 17 March 20
IT IS NOW UNQUESTIONABLE THAT 2020 WILL BE A MILESTONE YEAR FOR THE OIL MARKET, AS WELL AS THE WHOLE GLOBAL ECONOMY - ALLIED
 It is now unquestionable that 2020 will be a milestone year for the oil market, as well as the whole global economy. The impact from the COVID-19 outbreak will surely be considerable on oil trade, yet at this point it seems the tanker market has been taken by storm by the Saudi Arabia – Russia dispute on oil production output which has suddenly plunged oil prices to record lows while sending tanker freight rates to brand new highs, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Research.
Yiannis Vamvakas further noted that, the severity of this impact, the time-duration of all these developments, as well as the reaction from key market participants is extremely difficult to predict right now, yet it is worth reviewing some crucial points.
On the production side, Yiannis Vamvakas noted that, last week’s news that Saudi Arabia and Russia could not come to a mutual agreement and would ramp up production was definitely unexpected. Given the weakened global demand levels that have been noted of late, all this seems counterintuitive for both. The fact that these two producer giants could not reach an agreement had as a result Brent oil to slide close to US$33 per barrel, while WTI reached a price of just above US$31 per barrel.
Additionally, he said, it is worth mentioning that last week we witnessed the biggest daily oil price loss since the Gulf War of 1991, with a drop of around 25%. The disagreement between OPEC and Russia came after the latter’s refusal to support any further production cuts that OPEC proposed as a measure to counter the effects of the coronavirus outbreak.
According to local sources, Saudi Arabia has already decided to increase its crude production above 10 million bpd next month from its current level of 9.7 million bpd. Russia, at the same time, has stated that it could lift production as well and that it could cope with low oil prices for up to ten years. Meanwhile the plunge in oil prices below US$40 has had a crucial impact on the US shale oil market. Several key producers in the US have already decreased their drilling plans, while the rig count is expected to fall by more than 45%. All this is a stark reminder of 2014, yet this time around demand figures are not as encouraging, a fact that has further darkened outlook.
On the demand side, Allied Research noted that, the IEA announced that oil demand is expected to decrease in 2020 for the first time in more than a decade. More specifically, forecasts are showing that oil demand will drop by approximately 90,000 bpd, falling to 99.9 million bpd in 2020. The key reason for these developments is the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on several key industries (such as the travel industry). Estimates are showing that jet fuel demand is likely to slump by 11% on an annual basis, from last year’s 7.2 million bpd. Meanwhile, one of the most for now has been Asia which encompasses some of the most significant importers. Current demand for oil in China is estimated to have declined by 1.8m b/d. Yet, given the latest developments, the impact will not be limited there, with Europe and the US now following through. On the positive side, oil consumption is expected to rebound and increase by 2.1 million bpd in 2021.
However, with oil producers now in the midst of a “battle”, market fundamentals are in a constant state of shift. Undoubtedly, the crisis that we are facing will most likely be temporary, but to what extent the market will be “scarred” in the long term is hard to predict right now. It is likely that we will see a robust demand rebound once this have calmed down, but it is difficult to see yet to what extent. For the time being, it looks as though the tanker market is basking in the windfall benefits that have come along, as to how long these benefits will last remains to be seen, Yiannis Vamvakas concluded in its latest weekly analysis report.
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Wednesday, 11 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 4th of September the Baltic Dry Index marked its highest level for 2019, reaching 2,518 points, while the rest of the dry indices also recor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS
It might be already overstated, but it seems to be important to point out once again how peculiar the current circumstances are.
Before the st ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
EIA FORECASTS U.S ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR DEMAND FOR COAL WILL FALL BY 81 MMST (15%) IN 2020
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019. According to EIA's Shor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: DEMAND DOWNGRADES FOR BULK COMMODITIES - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus outbreak is a rapidly evolving news story – and a real wildcard for bulks demand. Our global experts are monitoring the impac ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE ENSURES ENERGY SUPPLY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has seen more than 500 coal mines resume production in February, which ensured energy supply amid the ou ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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