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Tuesday, 17 March 20
IT IS NOW UNQUESTIONABLE THAT 2020 WILL BE A MILESTONE YEAR FOR THE OIL MARKET, AS WELL AS THE WHOLE GLOBAL ECONOMY - ALLIED
 It is now unquestionable that 2020 will be a milestone year for the oil market, as well as the whole global economy. The impact from the COVID-19 outbreak will surely be considerable on oil trade, yet at this point it seems the tanker market has been taken by storm by the Saudi Arabia – Russia dispute on oil production output which has suddenly plunged oil prices to record lows while sending tanker freight rates to brand new highs, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Research.
Yiannis Vamvakas further noted that, the severity of this impact, the time-duration of all these developments, as well as the reaction from key market participants is extremely difficult to predict right now, yet it is worth reviewing some crucial points.
On the production side, Yiannis Vamvakas noted that, last week’s news that Saudi Arabia and Russia could not come to a mutual agreement and would ramp up production was definitely unexpected. Given the weakened global demand levels that have been noted of late, all this seems counterintuitive for both. The fact that these two producer giants could not reach an agreement had as a result Brent oil to slide close to US$33 per barrel, while WTI reached a price of just above US$31 per barrel.
Additionally, he said, it is worth mentioning that last week we witnessed the biggest daily oil price loss since the Gulf War of 1991, with a drop of around 25%. The disagreement between OPEC and Russia came after the latter’s refusal to support any further production cuts that OPEC proposed as a measure to counter the effects of the coronavirus outbreak.
According to local sources, Saudi Arabia has already decided to increase its crude production above 10 million bpd next month from its current level of 9.7 million bpd. Russia, at the same time, has stated that it could lift production as well and that it could cope with low oil prices for up to ten years. Meanwhile the plunge in oil prices below US$40 has had a crucial impact on the US shale oil market. Several key producers in the US have already decreased their drilling plans, while the rig count is expected to fall by more than 45%. All this is a stark reminder of 2014, yet this time around demand figures are not as encouraging, a fact that has further darkened outlook.
On the demand side, Allied Research noted that, the IEA announced that oil demand is expected to decrease in 2020 for the first time in more than a decade. More specifically, forecasts are showing that oil demand will drop by approximately 90,000 bpd, falling to 99.9 million bpd in 2020. The key reason for these developments is the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on several key industries (such as the travel industry). Estimates are showing that jet fuel demand is likely to slump by 11% on an annual basis, from last year’s 7.2 million bpd. Meanwhile, one of the most for now has been Asia which encompasses some of the most significant importers. Current demand for oil in China is estimated to have declined by 1.8m b/d. Yet, given the latest developments, the impact will not be limited there, with Europe and the US now following through. On the positive side, oil consumption is expected to rebound and increase by 2.1 million bpd in 2021.
However, with oil producers now in the midst of a “battle”, market fundamentals are in a constant state of shift. Undoubtedly, the crisis that we are facing will most likely be temporary, but to what extent the market will be “scarred” in the long term is hard to predict right now. It is likely that we will see a robust demand rebound once this have calmed down, but it is difficult to see yet to what extent. For the time being, it looks as though the tanker market is basking in the windfall benefits that have come along, as to how long these benefits will last remains to be seen, Yiannis Vamvakas concluded in its latest weekly analysis report.
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Wednesday, 18 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite we all knew about the Covid-19 weeks ago, few could realize the size of the thread until the last few days. The examples of China and Italy ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
PRELIMINARY FIELD EXPERIENCES ON THE EFFECTS OF LSFO AND VLSFO ON CYLINDER CONDITION - HANS JENSEN LUBRICATORS
It is now more than two months since the 0.5% sulphur cap entered into force, which have affected the operation of more than 70,000 vessels. As ant ...
Monday, 16 March 20
ULTRAMAX: S8 INDONESIA-INDIA AND S10 INDONESIA-CHINA ROUTES BOTH POSTED GAINS OF $1,412, AND $1,289 ON THE WEEK, TO CLOSE AT $5,575, AND $6,089 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market came to work on Monday, with little expectation, or confidence, that the days ahead were going to bring anything o ...
Sunday, 15 March 20
CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT RISES 19% IN APRIL-FEBRUARY - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first eleven months of the ongoing fiscal have increased by 18.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 51.7 million to ...
Friday, 13 March 20
PANAMAX: SLIGHTLY STRONGER NUMBERS IN BOTH BASINS THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Still very sad times for the big ships, and merit in further trading at present levels is highly debatable for most tonnage. Spot fixtures ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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