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Tuesday, 17 March 20
IT IS NOW UNQUESTIONABLE THAT 2020 WILL BE A MILESTONE YEAR FOR THE OIL MARKET, AS WELL AS THE WHOLE GLOBAL ECONOMY - ALLIED
 It is now unquestionable that 2020 will be a milestone year for the oil market, as well as the whole global economy. The impact from the COVID-19 outbreak will surely be considerable on oil trade, yet at this point it seems the tanker market has been taken by storm by the Saudi Arabia – Russia dispute on oil production output which has suddenly plunged oil prices to record lows while sending tanker freight rates to brand new highs, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Research.
Yiannis Vamvakas further noted that, the severity of this impact, the time-duration of all these developments, as well as the reaction from key market participants is extremely difficult to predict right now, yet it is worth reviewing some crucial points.
On the production side, Yiannis Vamvakas noted that, last week’s news that Saudi Arabia and Russia could not come to a mutual agreement and would ramp up production was definitely unexpected. Given the weakened global demand levels that have been noted of late, all this seems counterintuitive for both. The fact that these two producer giants could not reach an agreement had as a result Brent oil to slide close to US$33 per barrel, while WTI reached a price of just above US$31 per barrel.
Additionally, he said, it is worth mentioning that last week we witnessed the biggest daily oil price loss since the Gulf War of 1991, with a drop of around 25%. The disagreement between OPEC and Russia came after the latter’s refusal to support any further production cuts that OPEC proposed as a measure to counter the effects of the coronavirus outbreak.
According to local sources, Saudi Arabia has already decided to increase its crude production above 10 million bpd next month from its current level of 9.7 million bpd. Russia, at the same time, has stated that it could lift production as well and that it could cope with low oil prices for up to ten years. Meanwhile the plunge in oil prices below US$40 has had a crucial impact on the US shale oil market. Several key producers in the US have already decreased their drilling plans, while the rig count is expected to fall by more than 45%. All this is a stark reminder of 2014, yet this time around demand figures are not as encouraging, a fact that has further darkened outlook.
On the demand side, Allied Research noted that, the IEA announced that oil demand is expected to decrease in 2020 for the first time in more than a decade. More specifically, forecasts are showing that oil demand will drop by approximately 90,000 bpd, falling to 99.9 million bpd in 2020. The key reason for these developments is the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on several key industries (such as the travel industry). Estimates are showing that jet fuel demand is likely to slump by 11% on an annual basis, from last year’s 7.2 million bpd. Meanwhile, one of the most for now has been Asia which encompasses some of the most significant importers. Current demand for oil in China is estimated to have declined by 1.8m b/d. Yet, given the latest developments, the impact will not be limited there, with Europe and the US now following through. On the positive side, oil consumption is expected to rebound and increase by 2.1 million bpd in 2021.
However, with oil producers now in the midst of a “battle”, market fundamentals are in a constant state of shift. Undoubtedly, the crisis that we are facing will most likely be temporary, but to what extent the market will be “scarred” in the long term is hard to predict right now. It is likely that we will see a robust demand rebound once this have calmed down, but it is difficult to see yet to what extent. For the time being, it looks as though the tanker market is basking in the windfall benefits that have come along, as to how long these benefits will last remains to be seen, Yiannis Vamvakas concluded in its latest weekly analysis report.
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Wednesday, 18 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite we all knew about the Covid-19 weeks ago, few could realize the size of the thread until the last few days. The examples of China and Italy ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
PRELIMINARY FIELD EXPERIENCES ON THE EFFECTS OF LSFO AND VLSFO ON CYLINDER CONDITION - HANS JENSEN LUBRICATORS
It is now more than two months since the 0.5% sulphur cap entered into force, which have affected the operation of more than 70,000 vessels. As ant ...
Monday, 16 March 20
ULTRAMAX: S8 INDONESIA-INDIA AND S10 INDONESIA-CHINA ROUTES BOTH POSTED GAINS OF $1,412, AND $1,289 ON THE WEEK, TO CLOSE AT $5,575, AND $6,089 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market came to work on Monday, with little expectation, or confidence, that the days ahead were going to bring anything o ...
Sunday, 15 March 20
CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT RISES 19% IN APRIL-FEBRUARY - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first eleven months of the ongoing fiscal have increased by 18.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 51.7 million to ...
Friday, 13 March 20
PANAMAX: SLIGHTLY STRONGER NUMBERS IN BOTH BASINS THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Still very sad times for the big ships, and merit in further trading at present levels is highly debatable for most tonnage. Spot fixtures ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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