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Tuesday, 17 March 20
IT IS NOW UNQUESTIONABLE THAT 2020 WILL BE A MILESTONE YEAR FOR THE OIL MARKET, AS WELL AS THE WHOLE GLOBAL ECONOMY - ALLIED
 It is now unquestionable that 2020 will be a milestone year for the oil market, as well as the whole global economy. The impact from the COVID-19 outbreak will surely be considerable on oil trade, yet at this point it seems the tanker market has been taken by storm by the Saudi Arabia – Russia dispute on oil production output which has suddenly plunged oil prices to record lows while sending tanker freight rates to brand new highs, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Research.
Yiannis Vamvakas further noted that, the severity of this impact, the time-duration of all these developments, as well as the reaction from key market participants is extremely difficult to predict right now, yet it is worth reviewing some crucial points.
On the production side, Yiannis Vamvakas noted that, last week’s news that Saudi Arabia and Russia could not come to a mutual agreement and would ramp up production was definitely unexpected. Given the weakened global demand levels that have been noted of late, all this seems counterintuitive for both. The fact that these two producer giants could not reach an agreement had as a result Brent oil to slide close to US$33 per barrel, while WTI reached a price of just above US$31 per barrel.
Additionally, he said, it is worth mentioning that last week we witnessed the biggest daily oil price loss since the Gulf War of 1991, with a drop of around 25%. The disagreement between OPEC and Russia came after the latter’s refusal to support any further production cuts that OPEC proposed as a measure to counter the effects of the coronavirus outbreak.
According to local sources, Saudi Arabia has already decided to increase its crude production above 10 million bpd next month from its current level of 9.7 million bpd. Russia, at the same time, has stated that it could lift production as well and that it could cope with low oil prices for up to ten years. Meanwhile the plunge in oil prices below US$40 has had a crucial impact on the US shale oil market. Several key producers in the US have already decreased their drilling plans, while the rig count is expected to fall by more than 45%. All this is a stark reminder of 2014, yet this time around demand figures are not as encouraging, a fact that has further darkened outlook.
On the demand side, Allied Research noted that, the IEA announced that oil demand is expected to decrease in 2020 for the first time in more than a decade. More specifically, forecasts are showing that oil demand will drop by approximately 90,000 bpd, falling to 99.9 million bpd in 2020. The key reason for these developments is the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on several key industries (such as the travel industry). Estimates are showing that jet fuel demand is likely to slump by 11% on an annual basis, from last year’s 7.2 million bpd. Meanwhile, one of the most for now has been Asia which encompasses some of the most significant importers. Current demand for oil in China is estimated to have declined by 1.8m b/d. Yet, given the latest developments, the impact will not be limited there, with Europe and the US now following through. On the positive side, oil consumption is expected to rebound and increase by 2.1 million bpd in 2021.
However, with oil producers now in the midst of a “battle”, market fundamentals are in a constant state of shift. Undoubtedly, the crisis that we are facing will most likely be temporary, but to what extent the market will be “scarred” in the long term is hard to predict right now. It is likely that we will see a robust demand rebound once this have calmed down, but it is difficult to see yet to what extent. For the time being, it looks as though the tanker market is basking in the windfall benefits that have come along, as to how long these benefits will last remains to be seen, Yiannis Vamvakas concluded in its latest weekly analysis report.
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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growt ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
THERMAL COAL TO 'PHASE OUT', STRONG DEMAND FOR COKING COAL: PLATO - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Plato Investments managing director Don Hamson says Australian iron ore producers are set to benefit in the fallout from coronavirus as China will ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CHINA PROVINCE TO CLOSE 10 MLN TONNES OF COAL CAPACITY IN 2020 - XINHUA
Southwest China’s Guizhou Province plans to phase out 10 million tonnes of outdated coal production capacity by closing 80 coal mines in 2020 ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
UKRAINE PRODUCED OVER 2.55 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN FEBRUARY - UKRINFORM
In February 2020, Ukraine produced over 2.55 million tonnes of coal, which is 0.2% less than planned.
The Coal Miners Union of Ukrai ...
Tuesday, 03 March 20
IMPORTANCE OF MASTER'S CARGO CHECKS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Adecision in recent High Court case has made it clear that there is no implied indemnity from a charterer to their counte ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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