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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s outcome is a psychological blow for the market, as the steep plunge in oil prices shows.
“And the market is now facing the spectre of unrestrained production once the current OPEC+ agreement expires in March.
“However, we do not think Saudi Arabia will push hard to lift their output in the northern hemisphere spring.
“Given weak demand and the likelihood this weakness will persist into the second quarter, it will be hard for any producer to increase their output sharply once the original production deal expires at the end of this month.”
Demand risks
She added: “One factor to bear in mind is that the plunge in demand we saw in Q1 was created by circumstances in China. The country’s coronavirus (Covid-19) containment measures have been far more stringent than those imposed anywhere else, and are not likely to be copied elsewhere.
“The lack of a production deal carries risk. This would become apparent if global economic growth weakens and oil demand continues to contract more sharply than expected thanks to the double whammy of coronavirus containment measures and falling GDP.”
Hittle said: “Our current projection sees global liquids demand fall by 2.7 million b/d year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, the first year-on-year decline on a quarterly basis since Q2 2009.
“It is the most severe decline since Q4 2008, the height of the 2008-2009 global economic crisis, which saw demand tumble by 2.8 million b/d year-on-year.”
Hittle said: “If the impact the coronavirus has had on global oil demand is sustained, then by the second half of the year we’d expect to see weaker GDP. This will have a far greater impact on oil demand than just temporary reductions in jet fuel and gasoline demand.
“A longer, sustained outbreak of coronavirus threatens to hit oil demand with a double whammy: already weak demand will soften further because of containment measures, and this will weaken GDP.”
What next?
What does this mean for OPEC and OPEC+? It would mean that the group would likely need to monitor economic indicators closely. It may even mean that they could be forced to call an emergency meeting during the second quarter.
She added: “A sustained bout of low oil prices will further reduce cash flow and investment into the US oil patch, causing further hits to Lower 48 production growth later this year. It takes at least six to nine months for reductions in spend to lead to lower oil production in the US Lower 48.
“In that time, their access to capital may be limited and their free cash flow badly hit.
“The only silver lining in a very dark cloud is for refining – the sector will be hit hard by weak demand, but it is at least saved from tightening crude differentials associated with a major cut in OPEC supplies.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 04 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry bulk freight rates rebounded last week, a development that came as a relief following the recent negative sentiment that prevailed in the marke ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
INDONESIA REVIEWING RULES MANDATING COAL SALES TO LOCAL BUYERS: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia is reviewing rules that require coal miners to sell a portion of their coal to local buyers, a government official said on Monday, as sup ...
Tuesday, 03 December 19
STABILITY AND COMPATIBILITY OF VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL OILS - GARD
In order to meet increasing restrictions on the sulphur content in marine fuel as defined by MARPOL Annex VI Regulation 14.1.3, the characteristics ...
Monday, 02 December 19
COAL PRODUCTION IN INDIA UP BY 164.58 MT IN 5 YEARS - BUSINESS LINE
Raw coal production in the country has increased from 567.77 million tons (MT) in 2013-14 to 730.35 MT in 2018-19, Union Coal and Parliamentary Aff ...
Monday, 02 December 19
OPEC PREPS FOR OIL'S 2020 BALANCING ACT - WOOD MACKENZIE
What steps should OPEC and its non-OPEC partners take to keep the market in balance in 2020? Ahead of OPEC’s meeting in Vienna on 5 and 6 Dec ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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