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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s outcome is a psychological blow for the market, as the steep plunge in oil prices shows.
“And the market is now facing the spectre of unrestrained production once the current OPEC+ agreement expires in March.
“However, we do not think Saudi Arabia will push hard to lift their output in the northern hemisphere spring.
“Given weak demand and the likelihood this weakness will persist into the second quarter, it will be hard for any producer to increase their output sharply once the original production deal expires at the end of this month.”
Demand risks
She added: “One factor to bear in mind is that the plunge in demand we saw in Q1 was created by circumstances in China. The country’s coronavirus (Covid-19) containment measures have been far more stringent than those imposed anywhere else, and are not likely to be copied elsewhere.
“The lack of a production deal carries risk. This would become apparent if global economic growth weakens and oil demand continues to contract more sharply than expected thanks to the double whammy of coronavirus containment measures and falling GDP.”
Hittle said: “Our current projection sees global liquids demand fall by 2.7 million b/d year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, the first year-on-year decline on a quarterly basis since Q2 2009.
“It is the most severe decline since Q4 2008, the height of the 2008-2009 global economic crisis, which saw demand tumble by 2.8 million b/d year-on-year.”
Hittle said: “If the impact the coronavirus has had on global oil demand is sustained, then by the second half of the year we’d expect to see weaker GDP. This will have a far greater impact on oil demand than just temporary reductions in jet fuel and gasoline demand.
“A longer, sustained outbreak of coronavirus threatens to hit oil demand with a double whammy: already weak demand will soften further because of containment measures, and this will weaken GDP.”
What next?
What does this mean for OPEC and OPEC+? It would mean that the group would likely need to monitor economic indicators closely. It may even mean that they could be forced to call an emergency meeting during the second quarter.
She added: “A sustained bout of low oil prices will further reduce cash flow and investment into the US oil patch, causing further hits to Lower 48 production growth later this year. It takes at least six to nine months for reductions in spend to lead to lower oil production in the US Lower 48.
“In that time, their access to capital may be limited and their free cash flow badly hit.
“The only silver lining in a very dark cloud is for refining – the sector will be hit hard by weak demand, but it is at least saved from tightening crude differentials associated with a major cut in OPEC supplies.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 30 November 19
PANAMAX: LEVELS IMPROVED IN THE PACIFIC MARKET TOO WITH $11,000 BEING CONCLUDED ON AN 81,000DWT SHIP FOR AN INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIP - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market has been well supported over the past week, led primarily by the Atlantic Basin. After bottoming last week, sentiment was s ...
Friday, 29 November 19
FITCHRATINGS MAINTAINS NEGATIVE 2020 OUTLOOK ON SHIPPING, AS TIGHTER SUPPLY HELPS, BUT SOFTER DEMAND DRAGS
Fitch’s Sector Outlook: Negative
We maintain a negative sector outlook for global shipping because of the forecast slowdown of ...
Friday, 29 November 19
INDONESIA PRODUCES 390 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN JAN-SEPT: MINISTER - REUTERS
Indonesia’s production of coal for the January-September period was 390 million tonnes, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Arifin Tasrif s ...
Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third qu ...
Tuesday, 26 November 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS 1 JANUARY 2020 GLOBAL CUT IN SULPHUR IN SHIP'S FUEL OIL LOOMS: IMO
“IMO 2020” requirements for ships to cut sulphur oxide emissions enter into effect in just over one month’s time. This will signi ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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