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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s outcome is a psychological blow for the market, as the steep plunge in oil prices shows.
“And the market is now facing the spectre of unrestrained production once the current OPEC+ agreement expires in March.
“However, we do not think Saudi Arabia will push hard to lift their output in the northern hemisphere spring.
“Given weak demand and the likelihood this weakness will persist into the second quarter, it will be hard for any producer to increase their output sharply once the original production deal expires at the end of this month.”
Demand risks
She added: “One factor to bear in mind is that the plunge in demand we saw in Q1 was created by circumstances in China. The country’s coronavirus (Covid-19) containment measures have been far more stringent than those imposed anywhere else, and are not likely to be copied elsewhere.
“The lack of a production deal carries risk. This would become apparent if global economic growth weakens and oil demand continues to contract more sharply than expected thanks to the double whammy of coronavirus containment measures and falling GDP.”
Hittle said: “Our current projection sees global liquids demand fall by 2.7 million b/d year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, the first year-on-year decline on a quarterly basis since Q2 2009.
“It is the most severe decline since Q4 2008, the height of the 2008-2009 global economic crisis, which saw demand tumble by 2.8 million b/d year-on-year.”
Hittle said: “If the impact the coronavirus has had on global oil demand is sustained, then by the second half of the year we’d expect to see weaker GDP. This will have a far greater impact on oil demand than just temporary reductions in jet fuel and gasoline demand.
“A longer, sustained outbreak of coronavirus threatens to hit oil demand with a double whammy: already weak demand will soften further because of containment measures, and this will weaken GDP.”
What next?
What does this mean for OPEC and OPEC+? It would mean that the group would likely need to monitor economic indicators closely. It may even mean that they could be forced to call an emergency meeting during the second quarter.
She added: “A sustained bout of low oil prices will further reduce cash flow and investment into the US oil patch, causing further hits to Lower 48 production growth later this year. It takes at least six to nine months for reductions in spend to lead to lower oil production in the US Lower 48.
“In that time, their access to capital may be limited and their free cash flow badly hit.
“The only silver lining in a very dark cloud is for refining – the sector will be hit hard by weak demand, but it is at least saved from tightening crude differentials associated with a major cut in OPEC supplies.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 07 December 19
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL PRICE SURGE, WHILE OTHERS LANGUISH, IS TROUBLING - REUTERS
Coal prices around the world are gently sliding as demand from top importers such as China, India and even Europe remains subdued amid a so far mil ...
Saturday, 07 December 19
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL, THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX REMAINED IN POSITIVE MODE, DESPITE SOME AREAS LACKING FRESH ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week the Capesize market maintained healthy earnings, as an end of year surge took the Capesize 5TC back up to $25,202 by mid-wee ...
Friday, 06 December 19
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FOR DECEMBER INCREASES BY US 3 CENTS MOM
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Thursday, 05 December 19
IMO 2020 IS ABOUT TO GET REAL - GAVIN THOMPSON
As I write this edition of the APAC Energy Buzz from my desk in Singapore I can see ships. Lots of ships. No surprise given that Singapore is among ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
FITCH RATINGS: CASH FLOW GENERATION TO SLOW DOWN FOR INDONESIAN COAL MINERS
Fitch Ratings' negative outlook on the Indonesian coal-mining sector reflects our view of weaker cash flow generation on account of declining c ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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