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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growth outlook at risk. The full scale and impact of the outbreak remain to be seen, but it is certainly an unwelcome new wildcard for bulks demand. So, what is the potential impact on steel, iron ore, metallurgical and thermal coal?
This article includes key points from the insight ‘Coronavirus: assessing the impacts on bulks’. Fill in the form on this page for a complimentary copy of the full insight.
What is already clear is that the coronavirus outbreak threatens an otherwise positive near-term outlook. A solid end to the year meant China’s economy secured annual growth of 6.1% in 2019. Metals demand was also showing signs of improvement – mainly on the back of accelerated Industrial Production (IP) and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators in November and December, an uptick of auto production in December, and a recovery in property completions across Q4.
China’s Phase One trade deal with the US also fuelled expectations that its macroeconomy would remain robust in H1 2020. The coronavirus outbreak has put this outlook at risk.
Steel demand will be affected
Consumer activity in China has been hit by the extended holiday period, transport bans and quarantines. The restrictions on the workforce have also delayed the restart of some construction projects – and as construction accounts for two-thirds of Chinese steel demand the implications are stark. Crude steel and hot metal demand – previously set to grow this year – are now facing a year-on-year decline.
China has felt the impact of a virus outbreak before. In 2003, SARS slowed construction activities, delayed the springtime peak for steel demand and put pressure on rebar prices.
But what can we really learn from the experience of the SARS epidemic? And how could steel be affected this time around? Fill in the form to read the full complimentary insight.
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting bulks?
Metallurgical coal
The direct impact on metallurgical coal imports has been relatively muted. Production at coastal mills is strong and we don’t expect the outbreak to drive a significant change in import trends – the high availability of stocks from the customs clearance delays in 2019 currently has a bigger influence.
In the very near term, the extended holiday period has meant that the impact on domestic metallurgical coal supply is greater than the impact on demand. Resultant coal shortages are pushing prices higher.
However, an inevitable decline in steel demand will affect steel prices and margins. Lower steel margins will ultimately impact on metallurgical coal markets. We expect metallurgical coal demand between March and May to be lower than it would have been as a result.
Iron ore
We expect a relatively low impact on iron ore demand. Chinese blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production should remain resilient, with most large integrated operations continuing to operate, if at a reduced rate. Iron ore prices have taken a hit, driven by uncertainty and a lack of volume during the holiday period.
Read the full insight for more on our price forecast, and how slower end-use demand from construction could affect producers.
Thermal coal
Thermal coal demand and domestic production will both be dented by weakening economic and industrial activity. Domestic supply is returning quickly, but demand is slower to recover – potentially leading to an oversupply situation in March. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens.
The effect on international prices is likely to be volatile in the very short-term as the outbreak remains an emerging news story. Throughout the year though, the downside risk for prices is muted, given how significantly they fell in 2019 and that many producers are already in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this would likely be a temporary drop until China’s imports picked up again towards the end of the year.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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