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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growth outlook at risk. The full scale and impact of the outbreak remain to be seen, but it is certainly an unwelcome new wildcard for bulks demand. So, what is the potential impact on steel, iron ore, metallurgical and thermal coal?
This article includes key points from the insight ‘Coronavirus: assessing the impacts on bulks’. Fill in the form on this page for a complimentary copy of the full insight.
What is already clear is that the coronavirus outbreak threatens an otherwise positive near-term outlook. A solid end to the year meant China’s economy secured annual growth of 6.1% in 2019. Metals demand was also showing signs of improvement – mainly on the back of accelerated Industrial Production (IP) and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators in November and December, an uptick of auto production in December, and a recovery in property completions across Q4.
China’s Phase One trade deal with the US also fuelled expectations that its macroeconomy would remain robust in H1 2020. The coronavirus outbreak has put this outlook at risk.
Steel demand will be affected
Consumer activity in China has been hit by the extended holiday period, transport bans and quarantines. The restrictions on the workforce have also delayed the restart of some construction projects – and as construction accounts for two-thirds of Chinese steel demand the implications are stark. Crude steel and hot metal demand – previously set to grow this year – are now facing a year-on-year decline.
China has felt the impact of a virus outbreak before. In 2003, SARS slowed construction activities, delayed the springtime peak for steel demand and put pressure on rebar prices.
But what can we really learn from the experience of the SARS epidemic? And how could steel be affected this time around? Fill in the form to read the full complimentary insight.
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting bulks?
Metallurgical coal
The direct impact on metallurgical coal imports has been relatively muted. Production at coastal mills is strong and we don’t expect the outbreak to drive a significant change in import trends – the high availability of stocks from the customs clearance delays in 2019 currently has a bigger influence.
In the very near term, the extended holiday period has meant that the impact on domestic metallurgical coal supply is greater than the impact on demand. Resultant coal shortages are pushing prices higher.
However, an inevitable decline in steel demand will affect steel prices and margins. Lower steel margins will ultimately impact on metallurgical coal markets. We expect metallurgical coal demand between March and May to be lower than it would have been as a result.
Iron ore
We expect a relatively low impact on iron ore demand. Chinese blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production should remain resilient, with most large integrated operations continuing to operate, if at a reduced rate. Iron ore prices have taken a hit, driven by uncertainty and a lack of volume during the holiday period.
Read the full insight for more on our price forecast, and how slower end-use demand from construction could affect producers.
Thermal coal
Thermal coal demand and domestic production will both be dented by weakening economic and industrial activity. Domestic supply is returning quickly, but demand is slower to recover – potentially leading to an oversupply situation in March. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens.
The effect on international prices is likely to be volatile in the very short-term as the outbreak remains an emerging news story. Throughout the year though, the downside risk for prices is muted, given how significantly they fell in 2019 and that many producers are already in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this would likely be a temporary drop until China’s imports picked up again towards the end of the year.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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