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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growth outlook at risk. The full scale and impact of the outbreak remain to be seen, but it is certainly an unwelcome new wildcard for bulks demand. So, what is the potential impact on steel, iron ore, metallurgical and thermal coal?
This article includes key points from the insight ‘Coronavirus: assessing the impacts on bulks’. Fill in the form on this page for a complimentary copy of the full insight.
What is already clear is that the coronavirus outbreak threatens an otherwise positive near-term outlook. A solid end to the year meant China’s economy secured annual growth of 6.1% in 2019. Metals demand was also showing signs of improvement – mainly on the back of accelerated Industrial Production (IP) and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators in November and December, an uptick of auto production in December, and a recovery in property completions across Q4.
China’s Phase One trade deal with the US also fuelled expectations that its macroeconomy would remain robust in H1 2020. The coronavirus outbreak has put this outlook at risk.
Steel demand will be affected
Consumer activity in China has been hit by the extended holiday period, transport bans and quarantines. The restrictions on the workforce have also delayed the restart of some construction projects – and as construction accounts for two-thirds of Chinese steel demand the implications are stark. Crude steel and hot metal demand – previously set to grow this year – are now facing a year-on-year decline.
China has felt the impact of a virus outbreak before. In 2003, SARS slowed construction activities, delayed the springtime peak for steel demand and put pressure on rebar prices.
But what can we really learn from the experience of the SARS epidemic? And how could steel be affected this time around? Fill in the form to read the full complimentary insight.
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting bulks?
Metallurgical coal
The direct impact on metallurgical coal imports has been relatively muted. Production at coastal mills is strong and we don’t expect the outbreak to drive a significant change in import trends – the high availability of stocks from the customs clearance delays in 2019 currently has a bigger influence.
In the very near term, the extended holiday period has meant that the impact on domestic metallurgical coal supply is greater than the impact on demand. Resultant coal shortages are pushing prices higher.
However, an inevitable decline in steel demand will affect steel prices and margins. Lower steel margins will ultimately impact on metallurgical coal markets. We expect metallurgical coal demand between March and May to be lower than it would have been as a result.
Iron ore
We expect a relatively low impact on iron ore demand. Chinese blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production should remain resilient, with most large integrated operations continuing to operate, if at a reduced rate. Iron ore prices have taken a hit, driven by uncertainty and a lack of volume during the holiday period.
Read the full insight for more on our price forecast, and how slower end-use demand from construction could affect producers.
Thermal coal
Thermal coal demand and domestic production will both be dented by weakening economic and industrial activity. Domestic supply is returning quickly, but demand is slower to recover – potentially leading to an oversupply situation in March. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens.
The effect on international prices is likely to be volatile in the very short-term as the outbreak remains an emerging news story. Throughout the year though, the downside risk for prices is muted, given how significantly they fell in 2019 and that many producers are already in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this would likely be a temporary drop until China’s imports picked up again towards the end of the year.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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