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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growth outlook at risk. The full scale and impact of the outbreak remain to be seen, but it is certainly an unwelcome new wildcard for bulks demand. So, what is the potential impact on steel, iron ore, metallurgical and thermal coal?
This article includes key points from the insight ‘Coronavirus: assessing the impacts on bulks’. Fill in the form on this page for a complimentary copy of the full insight.
What is already clear is that the coronavirus outbreak threatens an otherwise positive near-term outlook. A solid end to the year meant China’s economy secured annual growth of 6.1% in 2019. Metals demand was also showing signs of improvement – mainly on the back of accelerated Industrial Production (IP) and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators in November and December, an uptick of auto production in December, and a recovery in property completions across Q4.
China’s Phase One trade deal with the US also fuelled expectations that its macroeconomy would remain robust in H1 2020. The coronavirus outbreak has put this outlook at risk.
Steel demand will be affected
Consumer activity in China has been hit by the extended holiday period, transport bans and quarantines. The restrictions on the workforce have also delayed the restart of some construction projects – and as construction accounts for two-thirds of Chinese steel demand the implications are stark. Crude steel and hot metal demand – previously set to grow this year – are now facing a year-on-year decline.
China has felt the impact of a virus outbreak before. In 2003, SARS slowed construction activities, delayed the springtime peak for steel demand and put pressure on rebar prices.
But what can we really learn from the experience of the SARS epidemic? And how could steel be affected this time around? Fill in the form to read the full complimentary insight.
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting bulks?
Metallurgical coal
The direct impact on metallurgical coal imports has been relatively muted. Production at coastal mills is strong and we don’t expect the outbreak to drive a significant change in import trends – the high availability of stocks from the customs clearance delays in 2019 currently has a bigger influence.
In the very near term, the extended holiday period has meant that the impact on domestic metallurgical coal supply is greater than the impact on demand. Resultant coal shortages are pushing prices higher.
However, an inevitable decline in steel demand will affect steel prices and margins. Lower steel margins will ultimately impact on metallurgical coal markets. We expect metallurgical coal demand between March and May to be lower than it would have been as a result.
Iron ore
We expect a relatively low impact on iron ore demand. Chinese blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production should remain resilient, with most large integrated operations continuing to operate, if at a reduced rate. Iron ore prices have taken a hit, driven by uncertainty and a lack of volume during the holiday period.
Read the full insight for more on our price forecast, and how slower end-use demand from construction could affect producers.
Thermal coal
Thermal coal demand and domestic production will both be dented by weakening economic and industrial activity. Domestic supply is returning quickly, but demand is slower to recover – potentially leading to an oversupply situation in March. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens.
The effect on international prices is likely to be volatile in the very short-term as the outbreak remains an emerging news story. Throughout the year though, the downside risk for prices is muted, given how significantly they fell in 2019 and that many producers are already in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this would likely be a temporary drop until China’s imports picked up again towards the end of the year.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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