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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growth outlook at risk. The full scale and impact of the outbreak remain to be seen, but it is certainly an unwelcome new wildcard for bulks demand. So, what is the potential impact on steel, iron ore, metallurgical and thermal coal?
This article includes key points from the insight ‘Coronavirus: assessing the impacts on bulks’. Fill in the form on this page for a complimentary copy of the full insight.
What is already clear is that the coronavirus outbreak threatens an otherwise positive near-term outlook. A solid end to the year meant China’s economy secured annual growth of 6.1% in 2019. Metals demand was also showing signs of improvement – mainly on the back of accelerated Industrial Production (IP) and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators in November and December, an uptick of auto production in December, and a recovery in property completions across Q4.
China’s Phase One trade deal with the US also fuelled expectations that its macroeconomy would remain robust in H1 2020. The coronavirus outbreak has put this outlook at risk.
Steel demand will be affected
Consumer activity in China has been hit by the extended holiday period, transport bans and quarantines. The restrictions on the workforce have also delayed the restart of some construction projects – and as construction accounts for two-thirds of Chinese steel demand the implications are stark. Crude steel and hot metal demand – previously set to grow this year – are now facing a year-on-year decline.
China has felt the impact of a virus outbreak before. In 2003, SARS slowed construction activities, delayed the springtime peak for steel demand and put pressure on rebar prices.
But what can we really learn from the experience of the SARS epidemic? And how could steel be affected this time around? Fill in the form to read the full complimentary insight.
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting bulks?
Metallurgical coal
The direct impact on metallurgical coal imports has been relatively muted. Production at coastal mills is strong and we don’t expect the outbreak to drive a significant change in import trends – the high availability of stocks from the customs clearance delays in 2019 currently has a bigger influence.
In the very near term, the extended holiday period has meant that the impact on domestic metallurgical coal supply is greater than the impact on demand. Resultant coal shortages are pushing prices higher.
However, an inevitable decline in steel demand will affect steel prices and margins. Lower steel margins will ultimately impact on metallurgical coal markets. We expect metallurgical coal demand between March and May to be lower than it would have been as a result.
Iron ore
We expect a relatively low impact on iron ore demand. Chinese blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production should remain resilient, with most large integrated operations continuing to operate, if at a reduced rate. Iron ore prices have taken a hit, driven by uncertainty and a lack of volume during the holiday period.
Read the full insight for more on our price forecast, and how slower end-use demand from construction could affect producers.
Thermal coal
Thermal coal demand and domestic production will both be dented by weakening economic and industrial activity. Domestic supply is returning quickly, but demand is slower to recover – potentially leading to an oversupply situation in March. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens.
The effect on international prices is likely to be volatile in the very short-term as the outbreak remains an emerging news story. Throughout the year though, the downside risk for prices is muted, given how significantly they fell in 2019 and that many producers are already in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this would likely be a temporary drop until China’s imports picked up again towards the end of the year.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
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