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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growth outlook at risk. The full scale and impact of the outbreak remain to be seen, but it is certainly an unwelcome new wildcard for bulks demand. So, what is the potential impact on steel, iron ore, metallurgical and thermal coal?
This article includes key points from the insight ‘Coronavirus: assessing the impacts on bulks’. Fill in the form on this page for a complimentary copy of the full insight.
What is already clear is that the coronavirus outbreak threatens an otherwise positive near-term outlook. A solid end to the year meant China’s economy secured annual growth of 6.1% in 2019. Metals demand was also showing signs of improvement – mainly on the back of accelerated Industrial Production (IP) and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators in November and December, an uptick of auto production in December, and a recovery in property completions across Q4.
China’s Phase One trade deal with the US also fuelled expectations that its macroeconomy would remain robust in H1 2020. The coronavirus outbreak has put this outlook at risk.
Steel demand will be affected
Consumer activity in China has been hit by the extended holiday period, transport bans and quarantines. The restrictions on the workforce have also delayed the restart of some construction projects – and as construction accounts for two-thirds of Chinese steel demand the implications are stark. Crude steel and hot metal demand – previously set to grow this year – are now facing a year-on-year decline.
China has felt the impact of a virus outbreak before. In 2003, SARS slowed construction activities, delayed the springtime peak for steel demand and put pressure on rebar prices.
But what can we really learn from the experience of the SARS epidemic? And how could steel be affected this time around? Fill in the form to read the full complimentary insight.
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting bulks?
Metallurgical coal
The direct impact on metallurgical coal imports has been relatively muted. Production at coastal mills is strong and we don’t expect the outbreak to drive a significant change in import trends – the high availability of stocks from the customs clearance delays in 2019 currently has a bigger influence.
In the very near term, the extended holiday period has meant that the impact on domestic metallurgical coal supply is greater than the impact on demand. Resultant coal shortages are pushing prices higher.
However, an inevitable decline in steel demand will affect steel prices and margins. Lower steel margins will ultimately impact on metallurgical coal markets. We expect metallurgical coal demand between March and May to be lower than it would have been as a result.
Iron ore
We expect a relatively low impact on iron ore demand. Chinese blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production should remain resilient, with most large integrated operations continuing to operate, if at a reduced rate. Iron ore prices have taken a hit, driven by uncertainty and a lack of volume during the holiday period.
Read the full insight for more on our price forecast, and how slower end-use demand from construction could affect producers.
Thermal coal
Thermal coal demand and domestic production will both be dented by weakening economic and industrial activity. Domestic supply is returning quickly, but demand is slower to recover – potentially leading to an oversupply situation in March. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens.
The effect on international prices is likely to be volatile in the very short-term as the outbreak remains an emerging news story. Throughout the year though, the downside risk for prices is muted, given how significantly they fell in 2019 and that many producers are already in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this would likely be a temporary drop until China’s imports picked up again towards the end of the year.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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