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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growth outlook at risk. The full scale and impact of the outbreak remain to be seen, but it is certainly an unwelcome new wildcard for bulks demand. So, what is the potential impact on steel, iron ore, metallurgical and thermal coal?
This article includes key points from the insight ‘Coronavirus: assessing the impacts on bulks’. Fill in the form on this page for a complimentary copy of the full insight.
What is already clear is that the coronavirus outbreak threatens an otherwise positive near-term outlook. A solid end to the year meant China’s economy secured annual growth of 6.1% in 2019. Metals demand was also showing signs of improvement – mainly on the back of accelerated Industrial Production (IP) and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators in November and December, an uptick of auto production in December, and a recovery in property completions across Q4.
China’s Phase One trade deal with the US also fuelled expectations that its macroeconomy would remain robust in H1 2020. The coronavirus outbreak has put this outlook at risk.
Steel demand will be affected
Consumer activity in China has been hit by the extended holiday period, transport bans and quarantines. The restrictions on the workforce have also delayed the restart of some construction projects – and as construction accounts for two-thirds of Chinese steel demand the implications are stark. Crude steel and hot metal demand – previously set to grow this year – are now facing a year-on-year decline.
China has felt the impact of a virus outbreak before. In 2003, SARS slowed construction activities, delayed the springtime peak for steel demand and put pressure on rebar prices.
But what can we really learn from the experience of the SARS epidemic? And how could steel be affected this time around? Fill in the form to read the full complimentary insight.
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting bulks?
Metallurgical coal
The direct impact on metallurgical coal imports has been relatively muted. Production at coastal mills is strong and we don’t expect the outbreak to drive a significant change in import trends – the high availability of stocks from the customs clearance delays in 2019 currently has a bigger influence.
In the very near term, the extended holiday period has meant that the impact on domestic metallurgical coal supply is greater than the impact on demand. Resultant coal shortages are pushing prices higher.
However, an inevitable decline in steel demand will affect steel prices and margins. Lower steel margins will ultimately impact on metallurgical coal markets. We expect metallurgical coal demand between March and May to be lower than it would have been as a result.
Iron ore
We expect a relatively low impact on iron ore demand. Chinese blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production should remain resilient, with most large integrated operations continuing to operate, if at a reduced rate. Iron ore prices have taken a hit, driven by uncertainty and a lack of volume during the holiday period.
Read the full insight for more on our price forecast, and how slower end-use demand from construction could affect producers.
Thermal coal
Thermal coal demand and domestic production will both be dented by weakening economic and industrial activity. Domestic supply is returning quickly, but demand is slower to recover – potentially leading to an oversupply situation in March. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens.
The effect on international prices is likely to be volatile in the very short-term as the outbreak remains an emerging news story. Throughout the year though, the downside risk for prices is muted, given how significantly they fell in 2019 and that many producers are already in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this would likely be a temporary drop until China’s imports picked up again towards the end of the year.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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