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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growth outlook at risk. The full scale and impact of the outbreak remain to be seen, but it is certainly an unwelcome new wildcard for bulks demand. So, what is the potential impact on steel, iron ore, metallurgical and thermal coal?
This article includes key points from the insight ‘Coronavirus: assessing the impacts on bulks’. Fill in the form on this page for a complimentary copy of the full insight.
What is already clear is that the coronavirus outbreak threatens an otherwise positive near-term outlook. A solid end to the year meant China’s economy secured annual growth of 6.1% in 2019. Metals demand was also showing signs of improvement – mainly on the back of accelerated Industrial Production (IP) and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators in November and December, an uptick of auto production in December, and a recovery in property completions across Q4.
China’s Phase One trade deal with the US also fuelled expectations that its macroeconomy would remain robust in H1 2020. The coronavirus outbreak has put this outlook at risk.
Steel demand will be affected
Consumer activity in China has been hit by the extended holiday period, transport bans and quarantines. The restrictions on the workforce have also delayed the restart of some construction projects – and as construction accounts for two-thirds of Chinese steel demand the implications are stark. Crude steel and hot metal demand – previously set to grow this year – are now facing a year-on-year decline.
China has felt the impact of a virus outbreak before. In 2003, SARS slowed construction activities, delayed the springtime peak for steel demand and put pressure on rebar prices.
But what can we really learn from the experience of the SARS epidemic? And how could steel be affected this time around? Fill in the form to read the full complimentary insight.
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting bulks?
Metallurgical coal
The direct impact on metallurgical coal imports has been relatively muted. Production at coastal mills is strong and we don’t expect the outbreak to drive a significant change in import trends – the high availability of stocks from the customs clearance delays in 2019 currently has a bigger influence.
In the very near term, the extended holiday period has meant that the impact on domestic metallurgical coal supply is greater than the impact on demand. Resultant coal shortages are pushing prices higher.
However, an inevitable decline in steel demand will affect steel prices and margins. Lower steel margins will ultimately impact on metallurgical coal markets. We expect metallurgical coal demand between March and May to be lower than it would have been as a result.
Iron ore
We expect a relatively low impact on iron ore demand. Chinese blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production should remain resilient, with most large integrated operations continuing to operate, if at a reduced rate. Iron ore prices have taken a hit, driven by uncertainty and a lack of volume during the holiday period.
Read the full insight for more on our price forecast, and how slower end-use demand from construction could affect producers.
Thermal coal
Thermal coal demand and domestic production will both be dented by weakening economic and industrial activity. Domestic supply is returning quickly, but demand is slower to recover – potentially leading to an oversupply situation in March. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens.
The effect on international prices is likely to be volatile in the very short-term as the outbreak remains an emerging news story. Throughout the year though, the downside risk for prices is muted, given how significantly they fell in 2019 and that many producers are already in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this would likely be a temporary drop until China’s imports picked up again towards the end of the year.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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