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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growth outlook at risk. The full scale and impact of the outbreak remain to be seen, but it is certainly an unwelcome new wildcard for bulks demand. So, what is the potential impact on steel, iron ore, metallurgical and thermal coal?
This article includes key points from the insight ‘Coronavirus: assessing the impacts on bulks’. Fill in the form on this page for a complimentary copy of the full insight.
What is already clear is that the coronavirus outbreak threatens an otherwise positive near-term outlook. A solid end to the year meant China’s economy secured annual growth of 6.1% in 2019. Metals demand was also showing signs of improvement – mainly on the back of accelerated Industrial Production (IP) and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators in November and December, an uptick of auto production in December, and a recovery in property completions across Q4.
China’s Phase One trade deal with the US also fuelled expectations that its macroeconomy would remain robust in H1 2020. The coronavirus outbreak has put this outlook at risk.
Steel demand will be affected
Consumer activity in China has been hit by the extended holiday period, transport bans and quarantines. The restrictions on the workforce have also delayed the restart of some construction projects – and as construction accounts for two-thirds of Chinese steel demand the implications are stark. Crude steel and hot metal demand – previously set to grow this year – are now facing a year-on-year decline.
China has felt the impact of a virus outbreak before. In 2003, SARS slowed construction activities, delayed the springtime peak for steel demand and put pressure on rebar prices.
But what can we really learn from the experience of the SARS epidemic? And how could steel be affected this time around? Fill in the form to read the full complimentary insight.
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting bulks?
Metallurgical coal
The direct impact on metallurgical coal imports has been relatively muted. Production at coastal mills is strong and we don’t expect the outbreak to drive a significant change in import trends – the high availability of stocks from the customs clearance delays in 2019 currently has a bigger influence.
In the very near term, the extended holiday period has meant that the impact on domestic metallurgical coal supply is greater than the impact on demand. Resultant coal shortages are pushing prices higher.
However, an inevitable decline in steel demand will affect steel prices and margins. Lower steel margins will ultimately impact on metallurgical coal markets. We expect metallurgical coal demand between March and May to be lower than it would have been as a result.
Iron ore
We expect a relatively low impact on iron ore demand. Chinese blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production should remain resilient, with most large integrated operations continuing to operate, if at a reduced rate. Iron ore prices have taken a hit, driven by uncertainty and a lack of volume during the holiday period.
Read the full insight for more on our price forecast, and how slower end-use demand from construction could affect producers.
Thermal coal
Thermal coal demand and domestic production will both be dented by weakening economic and industrial activity. Domestic supply is returning quickly, but demand is slower to recover – potentially leading to an oversupply situation in March. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens.
The effect on international prices is likely to be volatile in the very short-term as the outbreak remains an emerging news story. Throughout the year though, the downside risk for prices is muted, given how significantly they fell in 2019 and that many producers are already in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this would likely be a temporary drop until China’s imports picked up again towards the end of the year.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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