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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growth outlook at risk. The full scale and impact of the outbreak remain to be seen, but it is certainly an unwelcome new wildcard for bulks demand. So, what is the potential impact on steel, iron ore, metallurgical and thermal coal?
This article includes key points from the insight ‘Coronavirus: assessing the impacts on bulks’. Fill in the form on this page for a complimentary copy of the full insight.
What is already clear is that the coronavirus outbreak threatens an otherwise positive near-term outlook. A solid end to the year meant China’s economy secured annual growth of 6.1% in 2019. Metals demand was also showing signs of improvement – mainly on the back of accelerated Industrial Production (IP) and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators in November and December, an uptick of auto production in December, and a recovery in property completions across Q4.
China’s Phase One trade deal with the US also fuelled expectations that its macroeconomy would remain robust in H1 2020. The coronavirus outbreak has put this outlook at risk.
Steel demand will be affected
Consumer activity in China has been hit by the extended holiday period, transport bans and quarantines. The restrictions on the workforce have also delayed the restart of some construction projects – and as construction accounts for two-thirds of Chinese steel demand the implications are stark. Crude steel and hot metal demand – previously set to grow this year – are now facing a year-on-year decline.
China has felt the impact of a virus outbreak before. In 2003, SARS slowed construction activities, delayed the springtime peak for steel demand and put pressure on rebar prices.
But what can we really learn from the experience of the SARS epidemic? And how could steel be affected this time around? Fill in the form to read the full complimentary insight.
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting bulks?
Metallurgical coal
The direct impact on metallurgical coal imports has been relatively muted. Production at coastal mills is strong and we don’t expect the outbreak to drive a significant change in import trends – the high availability of stocks from the customs clearance delays in 2019 currently has a bigger influence.
In the very near term, the extended holiday period has meant that the impact on domestic metallurgical coal supply is greater than the impact on demand. Resultant coal shortages are pushing prices higher.
However, an inevitable decline in steel demand will affect steel prices and margins. Lower steel margins will ultimately impact on metallurgical coal markets. We expect metallurgical coal demand between March and May to be lower than it would have been as a result.
Iron ore
We expect a relatively low impact on iron ore demand. Chinese blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production should remain resilient, with most large integrated operations continuing to operate, if at a reduced rate. Iron ore prices have taken a hit, driven by uncertainty and a lack of volume during the holiday period.
Read the full insight for more on our price forecast, and how slower end-use demand from construction could affect producers.
Thermal coal
Thermal coal demand and domestic production will both be dented by weakening economic and industrial activity. Domestic supply is returning quickly, but demand is slower to recover – potentially leading to an oversupply situation in March. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens.
The effect on international prices is likely to be volatile in the very short-term as the outbreak remains an emerging news story. Throughout the year though, the downside risk for prices is muted, given how significantly they fell in 2019 and that many producers are already in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this would likely be a temporary drop until China’s imports picked up again towards the end of the year.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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