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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growth outlook at risk. The full scale and impact of the outbreak remain to be seen, but it is certainly an unwelcome new wildcard for bulks demand. So, what is the potential impact on steel, iron ore, metallurgical and thermal coal?
This article includes key points from the insight ‘Coronavirus: assessing the impacts on bulks’. Fill in the form on this page for a complimentary copy of the full insight.
What is already clear is that the coronavirus outbreak threatens an otherwise positive near-term outlook. A solid end to the year meant China’s economy secured annual growth of 6.1% in 2019. Metals demand was also showing signs of improvement – mainly on the back of accelerated Industrial Production (IP) and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators in November and December, an uptick of auto production in December, and a recovery in property completions across Q4.
China’s Phase One trade deal with the US also fuelled expectations that its macroeconomy would remain robust in H1 2020. The coronavirus outbreak has put this outlook at risk.
Steel demand will be affected
Consumer activity in China has been hit by the extended holiday period, transport bans and quarantines. The restrictions on the workforce have also delayed the restart of some construction projects – and as construction accounts for two-thirds of Chinese steel demand the implications are stark. Crude steel and hot metal demand – previously set to grow this year – are now facing a year-on-year decline.
China has felt the impact of a virus outbreak before. In 2003, SARS slowed construction activities, delayed the springtime peak for steel demand and put pressure on rebar prices.
But what can we really learn from the experience of the SARS epidemic? And how could steel be affected this time around? Fill in the form to read the full complimentary insight.
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting bulks?
Metallurgical coal
The direct impact on metallurgical coal imports has been relatively muted. Production at coastal mills is strong and we don’t expect the outbreak to drive a significant change in import trends – the high availability of stocks from the customs clearance delays in 2019 currently has a bigger influence.
In the very near term, the extended holiday period has meant that the impact on domestic metallurgical coal supply is greater than the impact on demand. Resultant coal shortages are pushing prices higher.
However, an inevitable decline in steel demand will affect steel prices and margins. Lower steel margins will ultimately impact on metallurgical coal markets. We expect metallurgical coal demand between March and May to be lower than it would have been as a result.
Iron ore
We expect a relatively low impact on iron ore demand. Chinese blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production should remain resilient, with most large integrated operations continuing to operate, if at a reduced rate. Iron ore prices have taken a hit, driven by uncertainty and a lack of volume during the holiday period.
Read the full insight for more on our price forecast, and how slower end-use demand from construction could affect producers.
Thermal coal
Thermal coal demand and domestic production will both be dented by weakening economic and industrial activity. Domestic supply is returning quickly, but demand is slower to recover – potentially leading to an oversupply situation in March. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens.
The effect on international prices is likely to be volatile in the very short-term as the outbreak remains an emerging news story. Throughout the year though, the downside risk for prices is muted, given how significantly they fell in 2019 and that many producers are already in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this would likely be a temporary drop until China’s imports picked up again towards the end of the year.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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