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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growth outlook at risk. The full scale and impact of the outbreak remain to be seen, but it is certainly an unwelcome new wildcard for bulks demand. So, what is the potential impact on steel, iron ore, metallurgical and thermal coal?
This article includes key points from the insight ‘Coronavirus: assessing the impacts on bulks’. Fill in the form on this page for a complimentary copy of the full insight.
What is already clear is that the coronavirus outbreak threatens an otherwise positive near-term outlook. A solid end to the year meant China’s economy secured annual growth of 6.1% in 2019. Metals demand was also showing signs of improvement – mainly on the back of accelerated Industrial Production (IP) and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators in November and December, an uptick of auto production in December, and a recovery in property completions across Q4.
China’s Phase One trade deal with the US also fuelled expectations that its macroeconomy would remain robust in H1 2020. The coronavirus outbreak has put this outlook at risk.
Steel demand will be affected
Consumer activity in China has been hit by the extended holiday period, transport bans and quarantines. The restrictions on the workforce have also delayed the restart of some construction projects – and as construction accounts for two-thirds of Chinese steel demand the implications are stark. Crude steel and hot metal demand – previously set to grow this year – are now facing a year-on-year decline.
China has felt the impact of a virus outbreak before. In 2003, SARS slowed construction activities, delayed the springtime peak for steel demand and put pressure on rebar prices.
But what can we really learn from the experience of the SARS epidemic? And how could steel be affected this time around? Fill in the form to read the full complimentary insight.
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting bulks?
Metallurgical coal
The direct impact on metallurgical coal imports has been relatively muted. Production at coastal mills is strong and we don’t expect the outbreak to drive a significant change in import trends – the high availability of stocks from the customs clearance delays in 2019 currently has a bigger influence.
In the very near term, the extended holiday period has meant that the impact on domestic metallurgical coal supply is greater than the impact on demand. Resultant coal shortages are pushing prices higher.
However, an inevitable decline in steel demand will affect steel prices and margins. Lower steel margins will ultimately impact on metallurgical coal markets. We expect metallurgical coal demand between March and May to be lower than it would have been as a result.
Iron ore
We expect a relatively low impact on iron ore demand. Chinese blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production should remain resilient, with most large integrated operations continuing to operate, if at a reduced rate. Iron ore prices have taken a hit, driven by uncertainty and a lack of volume during the holiday period.
Read the full insight for more on our price forecast, and how slower end-use demand from construction could affect producers.
Thermal coal
Thermal coal demand and domestic production will both be dented by weakening economic and industrial activity. Domestic supply is returning quickly, but demand is slower to recover – potentially leading to an oversupply situation in March. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens.
The effect on international prices is likely to be volatile in the very short-term as the outbreak remains an emerging news story. Throughout the year though, the downside risk for prices is muted, given how significantly they fell in 2019 and that many producers are already in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this would likely be a temporary drop until China’s imports picked up again towards the end of the year.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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