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Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
 Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between China and the West — and China and the U.S., in particular. However, there are far-reaching effects that have not been contemplated fully beyond the intuitive assessment.
Things move slowly. China has long been known as a country with patience, which in business language translates to longer lead times in the transactional arena, sometimes exhaustive negotiations, and relationships are built over time. Many of these relationships are created in the environment of trade shows, conferences, information exchange platforms, and trade delegations. China has finely tuned this method of cross-border introductions and it is a continuous process.
Combined with this is the growth of the multinational business presence in China. Major retailers, manufacturers, pharmaceuticals, biotech, automotive and other sectors are firmly planted in China with technology and personnel. Now, with the essentially closed border with China, the rest of the world waits and watches. To the business community, this is unsettling, to say the least, because there is no accurate predictor of when a vaccine may be found or when the world threat eradicated. Even when those pronouncements are ultimately made by Beijing there is the inherent distrust of information disseminated by the Chinese government.
So what does all of this mean for cross-border business in the short and long term?
An aerial view reveals that the movement of people and technology and deal closure have simply come to a halt. When the Chinese government, or other governments, or the WHO pronounce that it is safe to travel to China again, that will not be the end of it. There has been a worldwide reaction to the scare. The tradeshow and related cancellations have occurred not only in China but throughout Asia and into Europe. Therefore, a wide swath of activities are upended across all business sectors.
The rate of new cases slowed on Wednesday. As of this writing, there have been more than 45,000 cases of Covid-19 and over 1,100 deaths. Businesses from cruise ships to luxury brands and air travel, as well as global markets like oil, have all been hit. There can be no question that it will be a slow and painful process moving back to normalcy. Professional offices remain closed indefinitely, and 90% of businesses are closed or at dramatically reduced hours. Theaters, factories and others where people congregate are closed.
We are all familiar with the recent comparisons of coronavirus with SARS, but there is no real comparison. SARS was perceived as essentially a Hong Kong-centric event and everyone wondered if that would be the death of the HK economy, coming a few years after the handover. Moreover, social media and its impact on global interaction were just launching, and China’s interaction with the world economy was in its infancy.
Transparency will be the key to short term confidence which will lead to a long-term recovery. This is despite short-term pain and embarrassment. All governments can learn a lesson from this, but Beijing has yet to learn it. It may very well be that Wuhan, as ground zero for the Coronavirus, never recovers. The headlines today paint Wuhan as a pariah city, in a wartime battle and in lockdown. The Chinese Chernobyl. These characterizations will not be easily shed. Wuhan, as the capital of Hubei province, has positioned itself as a foreign investment hub and has developed trade, manufacturing and export and development zones to highlight its growth and position within China. Companies will have to assess whether or not their investments should remain in Wuhan or be moved.
Considering China’s impact on the world economy, China will not be off limits to future investment forever. Instead, there will be wariness and unbridled caution for the foreseeable future. Businesses will seek alternatives to avoid commercial and liability issues.
In the best case, returning to normal is not a reasonable expectation in the short term. In the long term, China must take all steps necessary to demonstrate its commitment to transparency regarding all factors relating to the virus. In today’s economy, there are many alternatives for trade and investment and China must recognize that its global trade partners need regular and repeated reassurances. Additionally, China will need to inject substantial financial incentives into the economy to balance against commercial and optical risks.
In the best of circumstances, this process will take six to nine months to see the way forward to a stable and commercially feasible reintroduction of business, confidence and renewed investment. This will require unrelenting adjustments as events require. There is no single action or vaccine that will erase the impact of the coronavirus. A group of actions are needed to restore the zeal and excitement for consumer, business, investment and tourism.
Anything less will create a lingering atmosphere of caution and distrust.
Source: CNBC
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Wednesday, 04 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry bulk freight rates rebounded last week, a development that came as a relief following the recent negative sentiment that prevailed in the marke ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
INDONESIA REVIEWING RULES MANDATING COAL SALES TO LOCAL BUYERS: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia is reviewing rules that require coal miners to sell a portion of their coal to local buyers, a government official said on Monday, as sup ...
Tuesday, 03 December 19
STABILITY AND COMPATIBILITY OF VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL OILS - GARD
In order to meet increasing restrictions on the sulphur content in marine fuel as defined by MARPOL Annex VI Regulation 14.1.3, the characteristics ...
Monday, 02 December 19
COAL PRODUCTION IN INDIA UP BY 164.58 MT IN 5 YEARS - BUSINESS LINE
Raw coal production in the country has increased from 567.77 million tons (MT) in 2013-14 to 730.35 MT in 2018-19, Union Coal and Parliamentary Aff ...
Monday, 02 December 19
OPEC PREPS FOR OIL'S 2020 BALANCING ACT - WOOD MACKENZIE
What steps should OPEC and its non-OPEC partners take to keep the market in balance in 2020? Ahead of OPEC’s meeting in Vienna on 5 and 6 Dec ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- The University of Queensland
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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