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Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
 Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between China and the West — and China and the U.S., in particular. However, there are far-reaching effects that have not been contemplated fully beyond the intuitive assessment.
Things move slowly. China has long been known as a country with patience, which in business language translates to longer lead times in the transactional arena, sometimes exhaustive negotiations, and relationships are built over time. Many of these relationships are created in the environment of trade shows, conferences, information exchange platforms, and trade delegations. China has finely tuned this method of cross-border introductions and it is a continuous process.
Combined with this is the growth of the multinational business presence in China. Major retailers, manufacturers, pharmaceuticals, biotech, automotive and other sectors are firmly planted in China with technology and personnel. Now, with the essentially closed border with China, the rest of the world waits and watches. To the business community, this is unsettling, to say the least, because there is no accurate predictor of when a vaccine may be found or when the world threat eradicated. Even when those pronouncements are ultimately made by Beijing there is the inherent distrust of information disseminated by the Chinese government.
So what does all of this mean for cross-border business in the short and long term?
An aerial view reveals that the movement of people and technology and deal closure have simply come to a halt. When the Chinese government, or other governments, or the WHO pronounce that it is safe to travel to China again, that will not be the end of it. There has been a worldwide reaction to the scare. The tradeshow and related cancellations have occurred not only in China but throughout Asia and into Europe. Therefore, a wide swath of activities are upended across all business sectors.
The rate of new cases slowed on Wednesday. As of this writing, there have been more than 45,000 cases of Covid-19 and over 1,100 deaths. Businesses from cruise ships to luxury brands and air travel, as well as global markets like oil, have all been hit. There can be no question that it will be a slow and painful process moving back to normalcy. Professional offices remain closed indefinitely, and 90% of businesses are closed or at dramatically reduced hours. Theaters, factories and others where people congregate are closed.
We are all familiar with the recent comparisons of coronavirus with SARS, but there is no real comparison. SARS was perceived as essentially a Hong Kong-centric event and everyone wondered if that would be the death of the HK economy, coming a few years after the handover. Moreover, social media and its impact on global interaction were just launching, and China’s interaction with the world economy was in its infancy.
Transparency will be the key to short term confidence which will lead to a long-term recovery. This is despite short-term pain and embarrassment. All governments can learn a lesson from this, but Beijing has yet to learn it. It may very well be that Wuhan, as ground zero for the Coronavirus, never recovers. The headlines today paint Wuhan as a pariah city, in a wartime battle and in lockdown. The Chinese Chernobyl. These characterizations will not be easily shed. Wuhan, as the capital of Hubei province, has positioned itself as a foreign investment hub and has developed trade, manufacturing and export and development zones to highlight its growth and position within China. Companies will have to assess whether or not their investments should remain in Wuhan or be moved.
Considering China’s impact on the world economy, China will not be off limits to future investment forever. Instead, there will be wariness and unbridled caution for the foreseeable future. Businesses will seek alternatives to avoid commercial and liability issues.
In the best case, returning to normal is not a reasonable expectation in the short term. In the long term, China must take all steps necessary to demonstrate its commitment to transparency regarding all factors relating to the virus. In today’s economy, there are many alternatives for trade and investment and China must recognize that its global trade partners need regular and repeated reassurances. Additionally, China will need to inject substantial financial incentives into the economy to balance against commercial and optical risks.
In the best of circumstances, this process will take six to nine months to see the way forward to a stable and commercially feasible reintroduction of business, confidence and renewed investment. This will require unrelenting adjustments as events require. There is no single action or vaccine that will erase the impact of the coronavirus. A group of actions are needed to restore the zeal and excitement for consumer, business, investment and tourism.
Anything less will create a lingering atmosphere of caution and distrust.
Source: CNBC
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Saturday, 30 November 19
PANAMAX: LEVELS IMPROVED IN THE PACIFIC MARKET TOO WITH $11,000 BEING CONCLUDED ON AN 81,000DWT SHIP FOR AN INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIP - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market has been well supported over the past week, led primarily by the Atlantic Basin. After bottoming last week, sentiment was s ...
Friday, 29 November 19
FITCHRATINGS MAINTAINS NEGATIVE 2020 OUTLOOK ON SHIPPING, AS TIGHTER SUPPLY HELPS, BUT SOFTER DEMAND DRAGS
Fitch’s Sector Outlook: Negative
We maintain a negative sector outlook for global shipping because of the forecast slowdown of ...
Friday, 29 November 19
INDONESIA PRODUCES 390 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN JAN-SEPT: MINISTER - REUTERS
Indonesia’s production of coal for the January-September period was 390 million tonnes, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Arifin Tasrif s ...
Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third qu ...
Tuesday, 26 November 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS 1 JANUARY 2020 GLOBAL CUT IN SULPHUR IN SHIP'S FUEL OIL LOOMS: IMO
“IMO 2020” requirements for ships to cut sulphur oxide emissions enter into effect in just over one month’s time. This will signi ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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