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Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
 Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between China and the West — and China and the U.S., in particular. However, there are far-reaching effects that have not been contemplated fully beyond the intuitive assessment.
Things move slowly. China has long been known as a country with patience, which in business language translates to longer lead times in the transactional arena, sometimes exhaustive negotiations, and relationships are built over time. Many of these relationships are created in the environment of trade shows, conferences, information exchange platforms, and trade delegations. China has finely tuned this method of cross-border introductions and it is a continuous process.
Combined with this is the growth of the multinational business presence in China. Major retailers, manufacturers, pharmaceuticals, biotech, automotive and other sectors are firmly planted in China with technology and personnel. Now, with the essentially closed border with China, the rest of the world waits and watches. To the business community, this is unsettling, to say the least, because there is no accurate predictor of when a vaccine may be found or when the world threat eradicated. Even when those pronouncements are ultimately made by Beijing there is the inherent distrust of information disseminated by the Chinese government.
So what does all of this mean for cross-border business in the short and long term?
An aerial view reveals that the movement of people and technology and deal closure have simply come to a halt. When the Chinese government, or other governments, or the WHO pronounce that it is safe to travel to China again, that will not be the end of it. There has been a worldwide reaction to the scare. The tradeshow and related cancellations have occurred not only in China but throughout Asia and into Europe. Therefore, a wide swath of activities are upended across all business sectors.
The rate of new cases slowed on Wednesday. As of this writing, there have been more than 45,000 cases of Covid-19 and over 1,100 deaths. Businesses from cruise ships to luxury brands and air travel, as well as global markets like oil, have all been hit. There can be no question that it will be a slow and painful process moving back to normalcy. Professional offices remain closed indefinitely, and 90% of businesses are closed or at dramatically reduced hours. Theaters, factories and others where people congregate are closed.
We are all familiar with the recent comparisons of coronavirus with SARS, but there is no real comparison. SARS was perceived as essentially a Hong Kong-centric event and everyone wondered if that would be the death of the HK economy, coming a few years after the handover. Moreover, social media and its impact on global interaction were just launching, and China’s interaction with the world economy was in its infancy.
Transparency will be the key to short term confidence which will lead to a long-term recovery. This is despite short-term pain and embarrassment. All governments can learn a lesson from this, but Beijing has yet to learn it. It may very well be that Wuhan, as ground zero for the Coronavirus, never recovers. The headlines today paint Wuhan as a pariah city, in a wartime battle and in lockdown. The Chinese Chernobyl. These characterizations will not be easily shed. Wuhan, as the capital of Hubei province, has positioned itself as a foreign investment hub and has developed trade, manufacturing and export and development zones to highlight its growth and position within China. Companies will have to assess whether or not their investments should remain in Wuhan or be moved.
Considering China’s impact on the world economy, China will not be off limits to future investment forever. Instead, there will be wariness and unbridled caution for the foreseeable future. Businesses will seek alternatives to avoid commercial and liability issues.
In the best case, returning to normal is not a reasonable expectation in the short term. In the long term, China must take all steps necessary to demonstrate its commitment to transparency regarding all factors relating to the virus. In today’s economy, there are many alternatives for trade and investment and China must recognize that its global trade partners need regular and repeated reassurances. Additionally, China will need to inject substantial financial incentives into the economy to balance against commercial and optical risks.
In the best of circumstances, this process will take six to nine months to see the way forward to a stable and commercially feasible reintroduction of business, confidence and renewed investment. This will require unrelenting adjustments as events require. There is no single action or vaccine that will erase the impact of the coronavirus. A group of actions are needed to restore the zeal and excitement for consumer, business, investment and tourism.
Anything less will create a lingering atmosphere of caution and distrust.
Source: CNBC
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Saturday, 07 December 19
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL PRICE SURGE, WHILE OTHERS LANGUISH, IS TROUBLING - REUTERS
Coal prices around the world are gently sliding as demand from top importers such as China, India and even Europe remains subdued amid a so far mil ...
Saturday, 07 December 19
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL, THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX REMAINED IN POSITIVE MODE, DESPITE SOME AREAS LACKING FRESH ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week the Capesize market maintained healthy earnings, as an end of year surge took the Capesize 5TC back up to $25,202 by mid-wee ...
Friday, 06 December 19
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FOR DECEMBER INCREASES BY US 3 CENTS MOM
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Thursday, 05 December 19
IMO 2020 IS ABOUT TO GET REAL - GAVIN THOMPSON
As I write this edition of the APAC Energy Buzz from my desk in Singapore I can see ships. Lots of ships. No surprise given that Singapore is among ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
FITCH RATINGS: CASH FLOW GENERATION TO SLOW DOWN FOR INDONESIAN COAL MINERS
Fitch Ratings' negative outlook on the Indonesian coal-mining sector reflects our view of weaker cash flow generation on account of declining c ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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