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Saturday, 17 October 09
US COAL MINERS LOOKING AT LOWER PROFITS
 Most US coal miners are looking at sharply lower third-quarter earnings, but those that produce coal for steelmaking and export should enjoy higher prices in the longer run than those that sell coal for power generation, analysts say.
Last year's economic downturn hit both steel and electricity demand hard and miners were forced to cut back on production as coal prices slumped. But now there are signs that coal demand, at least from steelmakers, is coming back.
"We generally favor coal producers with international leverage, especially those tied to steel production via metallurgical coal, over thermal coal producers," analyst Jeremy Sussman of Brean Murray, Carret & Co said on Thursday.
And Morgan Stanley's Mark Liinamaa and Wes Sconce said they expected premium hard metallurgical or coking coal for steelmaking to be selling at $160 per tonne in 2010, with prices trending higher through 2013. In June, the benchmark price for coking coal was $129 per tonne.
"Our commodity team sees higher seaborne thermal coal prices going forward but we do not expect demand for U.S. thermal coal exports for the next 12-18 months," the Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note.
In afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, the S&P index of coal stocks .GSPCOAL was down 1,2 percent, with Alpha Natural Resources the biggest loser, down 3 percent at $37,61. Consol Energy fell 2.4 percent to $49,76, Massey Energy fell 1,4 percent to $32,89, Peabody Energy was down 1,3 percent at $41,69 and Arch Coal was off 11 cents at $23,94.
This week, Dahlman Rose & Co downgraded Peabody, Arch and James River Coal to "hold" from "buy," saying the weak outlook for thermal coal does not support current valuations.
Peabody kicks off the earnings season for coal miners next Tuesday, followed by Arch, Consol Energy, Massey Energy and Alpha Natural Resources.
Of those producers, only Consol is seen posting a profit bigger than in the 2008 quarter, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Analysts on average expect Consol's earnings to be 66 cents per share, compared with 49 cents a year earlier.
"Consol has one big met mine (Buchanan, in Virginia) and we expect it to do better than expected as there has been a lot of spot demand from China," said Sussman.
He said Arch had the least metallurgical coal of the major miners and analysts currently expect its profit to be 4 cents per share, way off last year's 68 cents.
Peabody produces coking coal at its Australian mines, but analysts expect a big drop in third-quarter profit from $1,38 per share to 22 cents. Earnings of Massey, which has about 25 percent metallurgical coal, are expected to drop to 18 cents per share from 86 cents a year ago and Alpha's profit is expected to drop to 39 cents from 90 cents a year earlier.
Sussman said lower electricity demand from industry since last year's economic downturn has hurt coal miners that produce thermal or steam coal, which is burned in power plants.
"Inventory levels at utilities are still way too high (70 days, or 50 percent above average) for thermal coal producers to speak positively about the thermal coal market," he said.
According to Edison Electric Institute, for the 52 weeks ended Oct. 10, U.S. power production was down 3.4 percent from the corresponding period in 2008.
"On the other hand, there have been a number of recent positive data points in the met coal space, which should help met coal producers' earnings," said Sussman.
He noted China imported about 8.7 million tonnes of met coal during the third quarter, 30 percent more than in all of 2008. Also, Australia has slowed shipments to China recently and the United States appears to be picking up some of the slack.
"U.S. met coal companies should see a meaningful pickup in activity levels in the second half of the year versus the first half," said Sussman.
Morgan Stanley's analysts said investors seeking exposure to the coking coal upside might consider Cliffs Natural Resources, an iron ore pellet producer, which also operates some coal mines.
"Cliffs' U.S. coking coal mines can grow to 4,5 million tons by 2011, ahead of the market's 3,5 million-ton outlook," Liinamaa and Sconce wrote. Analysts expect Cliffs to report a 6-cent loss in the third quarter, after a $2,13 per-share profit a year ago.
Source: Mining Weekly, Reuters
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Monday, 14 September 09
BOOM FORECAST FOR COAL OUTPUT
SMH.com reported that, A COAL investment boom is driving Australian production to new peaks even as our biggest export markets shift towards cleaner ...
Sunday, 13 September 09
COAL INDIA MAY ACQUIRE ASSETS OF RIO TINTO
Coal India’s plan to acquire overseas mining assets is gathering steam. After a breakthrough in Mozambique, the coal behemoth has received&nbs ...
Saturday, 12 September 09
THE INDIA / FAR EAST SEEMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOFT UNTIL THE IRON ORE MOVEMENTS PICKS UP - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com (Singapore): The dry bulk market continued to be stable at almost as same levels as last week and the BDI was at 2,468 points.
...
Saturday, 12 September 09
GOVT REQUESTS MORE TIME TO ACQUIRE 21% SHARES IN NNT
The Jakarta Post reported that, the government plans to request a postponement for the acquisition of 21 percent shares in PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara ...
Saturday, 12 September 09
INDONESIAN CO KEEN ON TRADING COAL FOR EQUITY IN POWER PROJECTS
Though most large power project promoters have their own mines in Indonesia, MEC is confident of convincing Indian companies as its price is quite a ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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