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Saturday, 17 October 09
US COAL MINERS LOOKING AT LOWER PROFITS
 Most US coal miners are looking at sharply lower third-quarter earnings, but those that produce coal for steelmaking and export should enjoy higher prices in the longer run than those that sell coal for power generation, analysts say.
Last year's economic downturn hit both steel and electricity demand hard and miners were forced to cut back on production as coal prices slumped. But now there are signs that coal demand, at least from steelmakers, is coming back.
"We generally favor coal producers with international leverage, especially those tied to steel production via metallurgical coal, over thermal coal producers," analyst Jeremy Sussman of Brean Murray, Carret & Co said on Thursday.
And Morgan Stanley's Mark Liinamaa and Wes Sconce said they expected premium hard metallurgical or coking coal for steelmaking to be selling at $160 per tonne in 2010, with prices trending higher through 2013. In June, the benchmark price for coking coal was $129 per tonne.
"Our commodity team sees higher seaborne thermal coal prices going forward but we do not expect demand for U.S. thermal coal exports for the next 12-18 months," the Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note.
In afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, the S&P index of coal stocks .GSPCOAL was down 1,2 percent, with Alpha Natural Resources the biggest loser, down 3 percent at $37,61. Consol Energy fell 2.4 percent to $49,76, Massey Energy fell 1,4 percent to $32,89, Peabody Energy was down 1,3 percent at $41,69 and Arch Coal was off 11 cents at $23,94.
This week, Dahlman Rose & Co downgraded Peabody, Arch and James River Coal to "hold" from "buy," saying the weak outlook for thermal coal does not support current valuations.
Peabody kicks off the earnings season for coal miners next Tuesday, followed by Arch, Consol Energy, Massey Energy and Alpha Natural Resources.
Of those producers, only Consol is seen posting a profit bigger than in the 2008 quarter, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Analysts on average expect Consol's earnings to be 66 cents per share, compared with 49 cents a year earlier.
"Consol has one big met mine (Buchanan, in Virginia) and we expect it to do better than expected as there has been a lot of spot demand from China," said Sussman.
He said Arch had the least metallurgical coal of the major miners and analysts currently expect its profit to be 4 cents per share, way off last year's 68 cents.
Peabody produces coking coal at its Australian mines, but analysts expect a big drop in third-quarter profit from $1,38 per share to 22 cents. Earnings of Massey, which has about 25 percent metallurgical coal, are expected to drop to 18 cents per share from 86 cents a year ago and Alpha's profit is expected to drop to 39 cents from 90 cents a year earlier.
Sussman said lower electricity demand from industry since last year's economic downturn has hurt coal miners that produce thermal or steam coal, which is burned in power plants.
"Inventory levels at utilities are still way too high (70 days, or 50 percent above average) for thermal coal producers to speak positively about the thermal coal market," he said.
According to Edison Electric Institute, for the 52 weeks ended Oct. 10, U.S. power production was down 3.4 percent from the corresponding period in 2008.
"On the other hand, there have been a number of recent positive data points in the met coal space, which should help met coal producers' earnings," said Sussman.
He noted China imported about 8.7 million tonnes of met coal during the third quarter, 30 percent more than in all of 2008. Also, Australia has slowed shipments to China recently and the United States appears to be picking up some of the slack.
"U.S. met coal companies should see a meaningful pickup in activity levels in the second half of the year versus the first half," said Sussman.
Morgan Stanley's analysts said investors seeking exposure to the coking coal upside might consider Cliffs Natural Resources, an iron ore pellet producer, which also operates some coal mines.
"Cliffs' U.S. coking coal mines can grow to 4,5 million tons by 2011, ahead of the market's 3,5 million-ton outlook," Liinamaa and Sconce wrote. Analysts expect Cliffs to report a 6-cent loss in the third quarter, after a $2,13 per-share profit a year ago.
Source: Mining Weekly, Reuters
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Saturday, 12 September 09
$1.5B KALIMANTAN COAL RAIL TENDER EXPECTED BY YEAR-END
The Jakarta Globe reported that, In the second announcement on major coal-railway projects in as many days, Central Kalimantan’s top official ...
Friday, 11 September 09
INDONESIA COAL-PRICES AT $66, SUPPLIERS OFFER AT BARGAIN PRICES
Some Indonesian producers were rushing to sell coal at bargain prices to ease excess stocks and catch shipments before the Muslim Eid Al-Fitr festiv ...
Friday, 11 September 09
ALPHA NATURAL EXPECTS HIGHER MET, STEAM COAL PRICES IN 2010
Mining Weekly reported that, There are encouraging signs that metallurgical coal demand in most key global markets is either returning or poised to ...
Friday, 11 September 09
POWER SECTOR'S DEPENDENCE ON COAL TO CONTINUE
The power sector will continue to be largely dependant on coal-based thermal power plants to meet its energy needs for the next 15-20 years, Power S ...
Friday, 11 September 09
L&T EYES AUSSIE COAL MINE
Commodity Online reported that, Larsen and Toubro is in talks to buy a thermal coal mine in Australia for about $300 million. Thermal coal is used f ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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