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Saturday, 17 October 09
US COAL MINERS LOOKING AT LOWER PROFITS
 Most US coal miners are looking at sharply lower third-quarter earnings, but those that produce coal for steelmaking and export should enjoy higher prices in the longer run than those that sell coal for power generation, analysts say.
Last year's economic downturn hit both steel and electricity demand hard and miners were forced to cut back on production as coal prices slumped. But now there are signs that coal demand, at least from steelmakers, is coming back.
"We generally favor coal producers with international leverage, especially those tied to steel production via metallurgical coal, over thermal coal producers," analyst Jeremy Sussman of Brean Murray, Carret & Co said on Thursday.
And Morgan Stanley's Mark Liinamaa and Wes Sconce said they expected premium hard metallurgical or coking coal for steelmaking to be selling at $160 per tonne in 2010, with prices trending higher through 2013. In June, the benchmark price for coking coal was $129 per tonne.
"Our commodity team sees higher seaborne thermal coal prices going forward but we do not expect demand for U.S. thermal coal exports for the next 12-18 months," the Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note.
In afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, the S&P index of coal stocks .GSPCOAL was down 1,2 percent, with Alpha Natural Resources the biggest loser, down 3 percent at $37,61. Consol Energy fell 2.4 percent to $49,76, Massey Energy fell 1,4 percent to $32,89, Peabody Energy was down 1,3 percent at $41,69 and Arch Coal was off 11 cents at $23,94.
This week, Dahlman Rose & Co downgraded Peabody, Arch and James River Coal to "hold" from "buy," saying the weak outlook for thermal coal does not support current valuations.
Peabody kicks off the earnings season for coal miners next Tuesday, followed by Arch, Consol Energy, Massey Energy and Alpha Natural Resources.
Of those producers, only Consol is seen posting a profit bigger than in the 2008 quarter, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Analysts on average expect Consol's earnings to be 66 cents per share, compared with 49 cents a year earlier.
"Consol has one big met mine (Buchanan, in Virginia) and we expect it to do better than expected as there has been a lot of spot demand from China," said Sussman.
He said Arch had the least metallurgical coal of the major miners and analysts currently expect its profit to be 4 cents per share, way off last year's 68 cents.
Peabody produces coking coal at its Australian mines, but analysts expect a big drop in third-quarter profit from $1,38 per share to 22 cents. Earnings of Massey, which has about 25 percent metallurgical coal, are expected to drop to 18 cents per share from 86 cents a year ago and Alpha's profit is expected to drop to 39 cents from 90 cents a year earlier.
Sussman said lower electricity demand from industry since last year's economic downturn has hurt coal miners that produce thermal or steam coal, which is burned in power plants.
"Inventory levels at utilities are still way too high (70 days, or 50 percent above average) for thermal coal producers to speak positively about the thermal coal market," he said.
According to Edison Electric Institute, for the 52 weeks ended Oct. 10, U.S. power production was down 3.4 percent from the corresponding period in 2008.
"On the other hand, there have been a number of recent positive data points in the met coal space, which should help met coal producers' earnings," said Sussman.
He noted China imported about 8.7 million tonnes of met coal during the third quarter, 30 percent more than in all of 2008. Also, Australia has slowed shipments to China recently and the United States appears to be picking up some of the slack.
"U.S. met coal companies should see a meaningful pickup in activity levels in the second half of the year versus the first half," said Sussman.
Morgan Stanley's analysts said investors seeking exposure to the coking coal upside might consider Cliffs Natural Resources, an iron ore pellet producer, which also operates some coal mines.
"Cliffs' U.S. coking coal mines can grow to 4,5 million tons by 2011, ahead of the market's 3,5 million-ton outlook," Liinamaa and Sconce wrote. Analysts expect Cliffs to report a 6-cent loss in the third quarter, after a $2,13 per-share profit a year ago.
Source: Mining Weekly, Reuters
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Friday, 18 September 09
STANCHART TO ADVISE BAYAN ON INDONESIA COAL FINANCING
Indonesian coal miner PT Bayan Resources Tbk said on Wednesday it has appointed Standard Chartered Bank as a financial adviser for raising at least ...
Friday, 18 September 09
COKING COAL SUPPLY TO FALL 3 MILLION TONS IN CHINA ON SHUTDOWN
Bloomberg reported that, Coking coal supply in China, the largest consumer, may fall by 3 million metric tons a month after a mine accident this mon ...
Thursday, 17 September 09
FOUR LEFT IN INDIA'S MMTC COAL IMPORT TENDER-SOURCE
Reuters reported that, India's MMTC Ltd has accepted four out of five submissions for an import tender for 12.5 million tonnes of coal, with a bid ...
Thursday, 17 September 09
INDIA SEEKS COAL
IBT commodities reported that, India is on a coal buying spree. The big Asian nation is scrambling to cover an expected shortfall in domestic supply ...
Wednesday, 16 September 09
S. LANKA, INDIA'S NTPC TO SIGN $500 MLN COAL DEAL
Reuters reported that, Sri Lanka is to sign a commercial agreement with India's National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC.BO) to build a $500 millio ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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