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Saturday, 17 October 09
US COAL MINERS LOOKING AT LOWER PROFITS
 Most US coal miners are looking at sharply lower third-quarter earnings, but those that produce coal for steelmaking and export should enjoy higher prices in the longer run than those that sell coal for power generation, analysts say.
Last year's economic downturn hit both steel and electricity demand hard and miners were forced to cut back on production as coal prices slumped. But now there are signs that coal demand, at least from steelmakers, is coming back.
"We generally favor coal producers with international leverage, especially those tied to steel production via metallurgical coal, over thermal coal producers," analyst Jeremy Sussman of Brean Murray, Carret & Co said on Thursday.
And Morgan Stanley's Mark Liinamaa and Wes Sconce said they expected premium hard metallurgical or coking coal for steelmaking to be selling at $160 per tonne in 2010, with prices trending higher through 2013. In June, the benchmark price for coking coal was $129 per tonne.
"Our commodity team sees higher seaborne thermal coal prices going forward but we do not expect demand for U.S. thermal coal exports for the next 12-18 months," the Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note.
In afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, the S&P index of coal stocks .GSPCOAL was down 1,2 percent, with Alpha Natural Resources the biggest loser, down 3 percent at $37,61. Consol Energy fell 2.4 percent to $49,76, Massey Energy fell 1,4 percent to $32,89, Peabody Energy was down 1,3 percent at $41,69 and Arch Coal was off 11 cents at $23,94.
This week, Dahlman Rose & Co downgraded Peabody, Arch and James River Coal to "hold" from "buy," saying the weak outlook for thermal coal does not support current valuations.
Peabody kicks off the earnings season for coal miners next Tuesday, followed by Arch, Consol Energy, Massey Energy and Alpha Natural Resources.
Of those producers, only Consol is seen posting a profit bigger than in the 2008 quarter, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Analysts on average expect Consol's earnings to be 66 cents per share, compared with 49 cents a year earlier.
"Consol has one big met mine (Buchanan, in Virginia) and we expect it to do better than expected as there has been a lot of spot demand from China," said Sussman.
He said Arch had the least metallurgical coal of the major miners and analysts currently expect its profit to be 4 cents per share, way off last year's 68 cents.
Peabody produces coking coal at its Australian mines, but analysts expect a big drop in third-quarter profit from $1,38 per share to 22 cents. Earnings of Massey, which has about 25 percent metallurgical coal, are expected to drop to 18 cents per share from 86 cents a year ago and Alpha's profit is expected to drop to 39 cents from 90 cents a year earlier.
Sussman said lower electricity demand from industry since last year's economic downturn has hurt coal miners that produce thermal or steam coal, which is burned in power plants.
"Inventory levels at utilities are still way too high (70 days, or 50 percent above average) for thermal coal producers to speak positively about the thermal coal market," he said.
According to Edison Electric Institute, for the 52 weeks ended Oct. 10, U.S. power production was down 3.4 percent from the corresponding period in 2008.
"On the other hand, there have been a number of recent positive data points in the met coal space, which should help met coal producers' earnings," said Sussman.
He noted China imported about 8.7 million tonnes of met coal during the third quarter, 30 percent more than in all of 2008. Also, Australia has slowed shipments to China recently and the United States appears to be picking up some of the slack.
"U.S. met coal companies should see a meaningful pickup in activity levels in the second half of the year versus the first half," said Sussman.
Morgan Stanley's analysts said investors seeking exposure to the coking coal upside might consider Cliffs Natural Resources, an iron ore pellet producer, which also operates some coal mines.
"Cliffs' U.S. coking coal mines can grow to 4,5 million tons by 2011, ahead of the market's 3,5 million-ton outlook," Liinamaa and Sconce wrote. Analysts expect Cliffs to report a 6-cent loss in the third quarter, after a $2,13 per-share profit a year ago.
Source: Mining Weekly, Reuters
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Tuesday, 22 September 09
AUSTRALIA SEES HIGHER ASIAN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS
* Asia '09 imports to rise 3.5%, vs pvs f'cast of 3.3% fall
* Asia 2010 thermal coal imports expected to rise 6.3 pct
* China to become net im ...
Tuesday, 22 September 09
PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION MAY AID COLOMBIA COAL TO ASIA
* Colombia producers hope for growth in Asia shipments
* Panama Canal will allow smaller coal Capesize vessels
* Australia, Indonesia to remain bi ...
Monday, 21 September 09
ACCC SET TO APPROVE NEWCASTLE COAL SHIPPING AGREEMENT
ABC reported that, The competition regulator says it is likely to approve a new agreement over coal loading arrangements at Newcastle.
Australian ...
Friday, 18 September 09
PEABODY ENERGY ESTABLISHES ASIAN COAL TRADING HUB IN SINGAPORE
Peabody Energy announced it has opened an office in Singapore that will serve as the new hub for Peabody COALTRADE International activities in South ...
Friday, 18 September 09
AUSTRALIA NEWCASTLE COAL PORT: SEEKS INTERIM QUOTA SYSTEM
Reuters reported that, Australia's Newcastle coal terminal wants to re-introduce an interim export quota system after a group of miners led by BHP ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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