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Saturday, 17 October 09
US COAL MINERS LOOKING AT LOWER PROFITS
 Most US coal miners are looking at sharply lower third-quarter earnings, but those that produce coal for steelmaking and export should enjoy higher prices in the longer run than those that sell coal for power generation, analysts say.
Last year's economic downturn hit both steel and electricity demand hard and miners were forced to cut back on production as coal prices slumped. But now there are signs that coal demand, at least from steelmakers, is coming back.
"We generally favor coal producers with international leverage, especially those tied to steel production via metallurgical coal, over thermal coal producers," analyst Jeremy Sussman of Brean Murray, Carret & Co said on Thursday.
And Morgan Stanley's Mark Liinamaa and Wes Sconce said they expected premium hard metallurgical or coking coal for steelmaking to be selling at $160 per tonne in 2010, with prices trending higher through 2013. In June, the benchmark price for coking coal was $129 per tonne.
"Our commodity team sees higher seaborne thermal coal prices going forward but we do not expect demand for U.S. thermal coal exports for the next 12-18 months," the Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note.
In afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, the S&P index of coal stocks .GSPCOAL was down 1,2 percent, with Alpha Natural Resources the biggest loser, down 3 percent at $37,61. Consol Energy fell 2.4 percent to $49,76, Massey Energy fell 1,4 percent to $32,89, Peabody Energy was down 1,3 percent at $41,69 and Arch Coal was off 11 cents at $23,94.
This week, Dahlman Rose & Co downgraded Peabody, Arch and James River Coal to "hold" from "buy," saying the weak outlook for thermal coal does not support current valuations.
Peabody kicks off the earnings season for coal miners next Tuesday, followed by Arch, Consol Energy, Massey Energy and Alpha Natural Resources.
Of those producers, only Consol is seen posting a profit bigger than in the 2008 quarter, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Analysts on average expect Consol's earnings to be 66 cents per share, compared with 49 cents a year earlier.
"Consol has one big met mine (Buchanan, in Virginia) and we expect it to do better than expected as there has been a lot of spot demand from China," said Sussman.
He said Arch had the least metallurgical coal of the major miners and analysts currently expect its profit to be 4 cents per share, way off last year's 68 cents.
Peabody produces coking coal at its Australian mines, but analysts expect a big drop in third-quarter profit from $1,38 per share to 22 cents. Earnings of Massey, which has about 25 percent metallurgical coal, are expected to drop to 18 cents per share from 86 cents a year ago and Alpha's profit is expected to drop to 39 cents from 90 cents a year earlier.
Sussman said lower electricity demand from industry since last year's economic downturn has hurt coal miners that produce thermal or steam coal, which is burned in power plants.
"Inventory levels at utilities are still way too high (70 days, or 50 percent above average) for thermal coal producers to speak positively about the thermal coal market," he said.
According to Edison Electric Institute, for the 52 weeks ended Oct. 10, U.S. power production was down 3.4 percent from the corresponding period in 2008.
"On the other hand, there have been a number of recent positive data points in the met coal space, which should help met coal producers' earnings," said Sussman.
He noted China imported about 8.7 million tonnes of met coal during the third quarter, 30 percent more than in all of 2008. Also, Australia has slowed shipments to China recently and the United States appears to be picking up some of the slack.
"U.S. met coal companies should see a meaningful pickup in activity levels in the second half of the year versus the first half," said Sussman.
Morgan Stanley's analysts said investors seeking exposure to the coking coal upside might consider Cliffs Natural Resources, an iron ore pellet producer, which also operates some coal mines.
"Cliffs' U.S. coking coal mines can grow to 4,5 million tons by 2011, ahead of the market's 3,5 million-ton outlook," Liinamaa and Sconce wrote. Analysts expect Cliffs to report a 6-cent loss in the third quarter, after a $2,13 per-share profit a year ago.
Source: Mining Weekly, Reuters
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Thursday, 24 September 09
S.KOREA HYUNDAI STEEL TO BUY COAL FROM SIBERIA
Reuters reported that, South Korea's Hyundai Steel said on Wednesday it will buy a maximum of 300,000 tonnes of coal per year from Siberian Anthrac ...
Thursday, 24 September 09
NO IMPORTED COAL-BASED UMPPS: TATA POWER
Will wait until policy environment becomes more favourable.
Business Standard reported that, Tata Power Company (TPC), India’s largest priv ...
Thursday, 24 September 09
BUMI RAISES $1.9 BILLION SELLING DEBT TO CHINA'S CIC
Bloomberg reported that, PT Bumi Resources, Indonesia’s biggest coal producer, said it raised $1.9 billion selling debt to China’s sover ...
Thursday, 24 September 09
MACQUARIE DOWNGRADES U.S. COAL SECTOR TO NEUTRAL
Reuters reported that, Macquarie Research downgraded the U.S. coal sector to "neutral" from "overweight" as it believes that dem ...
Thursday, 24 September 09
CHINA WILL BE IMPORTER OF COKING COAL NEXT YEAR, MCCLOSKEY SAYS
Bloomberg reported that, China, the world’s largest coal user and producer, will remain an importer of the fuel through next year, according t ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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