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Saturday, 17 October 09
US COAL MINERS LOOKING AT LOWER PROFITS
 Most US coal miners are looking at sharply lower third-quarter earnings, but those that produce coal for steelmaking and export should enjoy higher prices in the longer run than those that sell coal for power generation, analysts say.
Last year's economic downturn hit both steel and electricity demand hard and miners were forced to cut back on production as coal prices slumped. But now there are signs that coal demand, at least from steelmakers, is coming back.
"We generally favor coal producers with international leverage, especially those tied to steel production via metallurgical coal, over thermal coal producers," analyst Jeremy Sussman of Brean Murray, Carret & Co said on Thursday.
And Morgan Stanley's Mark Liinamaa and Wes Sconce said they expected premium hard metallurgical or coking coal for steelmaking to be selling at $160 per tonne in 2010, with prices trending higher through 2013. In June, the benchmark price for coking coal was $129 per tonne.
"Our commodity team sees higher seaborne thermal coal prices going forward but we do not expect demand for U.S. thermal coal exports for the next 12-18 months," the Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note.
In afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, the S&P index of coal stocks .GSPCOAL was down 1,2 percent, with Alpha Natural Resources the biggest loser, down 3 percent at $37,61. Consol Energy fell 2.4 percent to $49,76, Massey Energy fell 1,4 percent to $32,89, Peabody Energy was down 1,3 percent at $41,69 and Arch Coal was off 11 cents at $23,94.
This week, Dahlman Rose & Co downgraded Peabody, Arch and James River Coal to "hold" from "buy," saying the weak outlook for thermal coal does not support current valuations.
Peabody kicks off the earnings season for coal miners next Tuesday, followed by Arch, Consol Energy, Massey Energy and Alpha Natural Resources.
Of those producers, only Consol is seen posting a profit bigger than in the 2008 quarter, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Analysts on average expect Consol's earnings to be 66 cents per share, compared with 49 cents a year earlier.
"Consol has one big met mine (Buchanan, in Virginia) and we expect it to do better than expected as there has been a lot of spot demand from China," said Sussman.
He said Arch had the least metallurgical coal of the major miners and analysts currently expect its profit to be 4 cents per share, way off last year's 68 cents.
Peabody produces coking coal at its Australian mines, but analysts expect a big drop in third-quarter profit from $1,38 per share to 22 cents. Earnings of Massey, which has about 25 percent metallurgical coal, are expected to drop to 18 cents per share from 86 cents a year ago and Alpha's profit is expected to drop to 39 cents from 90 cents a year earlier.
Sussman said lower electricity demand from industry since last year's economic downturn has hurt coal miners that produce thermal or steam coal, which is burned in power plants.
"Inventory levels at utilities are still way too high (70 days, or 50 percent above average) for thermal coal producers to speak positively about the thermal coal market," he said.
According to Edison Electric Institute, for the 52 weeks ended Oct. 10, U.S. power production was down 3.4 percent from the corresponding period in 2008.
"On the other hand, there have been a number of recent positive data points in the met coal space, which should help met coal producers' earnings," said Sussman.
He noted China imported about 8.7 million tonnes of met coal during the third quarter, 30 percent more than in all of 2008. Also, Australia has slowed shipments to China recently and the United States appears to be picking up some of the slack.
"U.S. met coal companies should see a meaningful pickup in activity levels in the second half of the year versus the first half," said Sussman.
Morgan Stanley's analysts said investors seeking exposure to the coking coal upside might consider Cliffs Natural Resources, an iron ore pellet producer, which also operates some coal mines.
"Cliffs' U.S. coking coal mines can grow to 4,5 million tons by 2011, ahead of the market's 3,5 million-ton outlook," Liinamaa and Sconce wrote. Analysts expect Cliffs to report a 6-cent loss in the third quarter, after a $2,13 per-share profit a year ago.
Source: Mining Weekly, Reuters
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Monday, 28 September 09
TATA POWER SCOUTS FOR COAL BLOCKS ABROAD
Business Standard reported that, private power producer Tata Power is scouting for coal mines abroad, including Australia and Mozambique, to meet de ...
Saturday, 26 September 09
THE INDIA / FAR EAST SEEMS WILL BE FIRM NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com (Singapore): The dry bulk market was soft this week and the BDI dropped by almost 7 pct to 2,183 points. The cape size index dropped by ...
Saturday, 26 September 09
GSECL PLANS TO PROCURE 15 LAKH (1.5 MILLION) MT OF IMPORTED COAL
Business Standard reported that, State-run power generation company, Gujarat State Electricity Corporation Ltd (GSECL) intends to procure 15 lakh (1 ...
Saturday, 26 September 09
SAIL TO SET UP TWO SLAG-BASED CEMENT MANUFACTURING UNITS
Rediff Business reported that, Government-owned Steel Authority of India Ltd, the country's largest steel producer, is looking to set up two greenf ...
Friday, 25 September 09
INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE EXAMINES BUMI DEAL WITH CHINESE SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUND
The Jakarta globe reported that, The Indonesia Stock Exchange is looking into the $1.9 billion financing deal between PT Bumi Resources, the country ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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