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Saturday, 17 October 09
US COAL MINERS LOOKING AT LOWER PROFITS
 Most US coal miners are looking at sharply lower third-quarter earnings, but those that produce coal for steelmaking and export should enjoy higher prices in the longer run than those that sell coal for power generation, analysts say.
Last year's economic downturn hit both steel and electricity demand hard and miners were forced to cut back on production as coal prices slumped. But now there are signs that coal demand, at least from steelmakers, is coming back.
"We generally favor coal producers with international leverage, especially those tied to steel production via metallurgical coal, over thermal coal producers," analyst Jeremy Sussman of Brean Murray, Carret & Co said on Thursday.
And Morgan Stanley's Mark Liinamaa and Wes Sconce said they expected premium hard metallurgical or coking coal for steelmaking to be selling at $160 per tonne in 2010, with prices trending higher through 2013. In June, the benchmark price for coking coal was $129 per tonne.
"Our commodity team sees higher seaborne thermal coal prices going forward but we do not expect demand for U.S. thermal coal exports for the next 12-18 months," the Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note.
In afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, the S&P index of coal stocks .GSPCOAL was down 1,2 percent, with Alpha Natural Resources the biggest loser, down 3 percent at $37,61. Consol Energy fell 2.4 percent to $49,76, Massey Energy fell 1,4 percent to $32,89, Peabody Energy was down 1,3 percent at $41,69 and Arch Coal was off 11 cents at $23,94.
This week, Dahlman Rose & Co downgraded Peabody, Arch and James River Coal to "hold" from "buy," saying the weak outlook for thermal coal does not support current valuations.
Peabody kicks off the earnings season for coal miners next Tuesday, followed by Arch, Consol Energy, Massey Energy and Alpha Natural Resources.
Of those producers, only Consol is seen posting a profit bigger than in the 2008 quarter, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Analysts on average expect Consol's earnings to be 66 cents per share, compared with 49 cents a year earlier.
"Consol has one big met mine (Buchanan, in Virginia) and we expect it to do better than expected as there has been a lot of spot demand from China," said Sussman.
He said Arch had the least metallurgical coal of the major miners and analysts currently expect its profit to be 4 cents per share, way off last year's 68 cents.
Peabody produces coking coal at its Australian mines, but analysts expect a big drop in third-quarter profit from $1,38 per share to 22 cents. Earnings of Massey, which has about 25 percent metallurgical coal, are expected to drop to 18 cents per share from 86 cents a year ago and Alpha's profit is expected to drop to 39 cents from 90 cents a year earlier.
Sussman said lower electricity demand from industry since last year's economic downturn has hurt coal miners that produce thermal or steam coal, which is burned in power plants.
"Inventory levels at utilities are still way too high (70 days, or 50 percent above average) for thermal coal producers to speak positively about the thermal coal market," he said.
According to Edison Electric Institute, for the 52 weeks ended Oct. 10, U.S. power production was down 3.4 percent from the corresponding period in 2008.
"On the other hand, there have been a number of recent positive data points in the met coal space, which should help met coal producers' earnings," said Sussman.
He noted China imported about 8.7 million tonnes of met coal during the third quarter, 30 percent more than in all of 2008. Also, Australia has slowed shipments to China recently and the United States appears to be picking up some of the slack.
"U.S. met coal companies should see a meaningful pickup in activity levels in the second half of the year versus the first half," said Sussman.
Morgan Stanley's analysts said investors seeking exposure to the coking coal upside might consider Cliffs Natural Resources, an iron ore pellet producer, which also operates some coal mines.
"Cliffs' U.S. coking coal mines can grow to 4,5 million tons by 2011, ahead of the market's 3,5 million-ton outlook," Liinamaa and Sconce wrote. Analysts expect Cliffs to report a 6-cent loss in the third quarter, after a $2,13 per-share profit a year ago.
Source: Mining Weekly, Reuters
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Wednesday, 30 September 09
COKING COAL PRICES MAY TOUCH $200/TN IN 2010-11
Business Standard reported that, Driven by surge in imports of coking coal by China, growth in Japanese steel output and signs of recovery in the In ...
Wednesday, 30 September 09
PURNOMO BIDS 'GOODBYE' TO ENERGY MINISTRY
The Jakarta globe reported that, In what could be construed as a resignation speech from a government official — but perhaps wasn’t &mda ...
Tuesday, 29 September 09
MINING AND ENERGY DAY 2009
The Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Purnomo Yusgiantoro led the ceremony marking 2009 Mining and Energy Day celebrations, held at the Depa ...
Tuesday, 29 September 09
BUKIT ASAM REDUCES ITS SALES TARGET
Tempo Interactive reported that, PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk has decided to reduce its sales target this year from 14.5 million tons of coal ...
Monday, 28 September 09
INDONESIA UNLIKELY TO PASS NEW MINING RULES IN 2009
Reuters reported that, Indonesia is unlikely to complete final regulations attached to a new mining and coal law this year, an official said on Mond ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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