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Saturday, 17 October 09
US COAL MINERS LOOKING AT LOWER PROFITS
 Most US coal miners are looking at sharply lower third-quarter earnings, but those that produce coal for steelmaking and export should enjoy higher prices in the longer run than those that sell coal for power generation, analysts say.
Last year's economic downturn hit both steel and electricity demand hard and miners were forced to cut back on production as coal prices slumped. But now there are signs that coal demand, at least from steelmakers, is coming back.
"We generally favor coal producers with international leverage, especially those tied to steel production via metallurgical coal, over thermal coal producers," analyst Jeremy Sussman of Brean Murray, Carret & Co said on Thursday.
And Morgan Stanley's Mark Liinamaa and Wes Sconce said they expected premium hard metallurgical or coking coal for steelmaking to be selling at $160 per tonne in 2010, with prices trending higher through 2013. In June, the benchmark price for coking coal was $129 per tonne.
"Our commodity team sees higher seaborne thermal coal prices going forward but we do not expect demand for U.S. thermal coal exports for the next 12-18 months," the Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note.
In afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, the S&P index of coal stocks .GSPCOAL was down 1,2 percent, with Alpha Natural Resources the biggest loser, down 3 percent at $37,61. Consol Energy fell 2.4 percent to $49,76, Massey Energy fell 1,4 percent to $32,89, Peabody Energy was down 1,3 percent at $41,69 and Arch Coal was off 11 cents at $23,94.
This week, Dahlman Rose & Co downgraded Peabody, Arch and James River Coal to "hold" from "buy," saying the weak outlook for thermal coal does not support current valuations.
Peabody kicks off the earnings season for coal miners next Tuesday, followed by Arch, Consol Energy, Massey Energy and Alpha Natural Resources.
Of those producers, only Consol is seen posting a profit bigger than in the 2008 quarter, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Analysts on average expect Consol's earnings to be 66 cents per share, compared with 49 cents a year earlier.
"Consol has one big met mine (Buchanan, in Virginia) and we expect it to do better than expected as there has been a lot of spot demand from China," said Sussman.
He said Arch had the least metallurgical coal of the major miners and analysts currently expect its profit to be 4 cents per share, way off last year's 68 cents.
Peabody produces coking coal at its Australian mines, but analysts expect a big drop in third-quarter profit from $1,38 per share to 22 cents. Earnings of Massey, which has about 25 percent metallurgical coal, are expected to drop to 18 cents per share from 86 cents a year ago and Alpha's profit is expected to drop to 39 cents from 90 cents a year earlier.
Sussman said lower electricity demand from industry since last year's economic downturn has hurt coal miners that produce thermal or steam coal, which is burned in power plants.
"Inventory levels at utilities are still way too high (70 days, or 50 percent above average) for thermal coal producers to speak positively about the thermal coal market," he said.
According to Edison Electric Institute, for the 52 weeks ended Oct. 10, U.S. power production was down 3.4 percent from the corresponding period in 2008.
"On the other hand, there have been a number of recent positive data points in the met coal space, which should help met coal producers' earnings," said Sussman.
He noted China imported about 8.7 million tonnes of met coal during the third quarter, 30 percent more than in all of 2008. Also, Australia has slowed shipments to China recently and the United States appears to be picking up some of the slack.
"U.S. met coal companies should see a meaningful pickup in activity levels in the second half of the year versus the first half," said Sussman.
Morgan Stanley's analysts said investors seeking exposure to the coking coal upside might consider Cliffs Natural Resources, an iron ore pellet producer, which also operates some coal mines.
"Cliffs' U.S. coking coal mines can grow to 4,5 million tons by 2011, ahead of the market's 3,5 million-ton outlook," Liinamaa and Sconce wrote. Analysts expect Cliffs to report a 6-cent loss in the third quarter, after a $2,13 per-share profit a year ago.
Source: Mining Weekly, Reuters
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Monday, 05 October 09
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL RISES ON INDIAN BUYING, DOMESTIC DEMAND
Bloomberg reported that, Prices for coal shipped from South Africa’s Richards Bay, site of the world’s largest export terminal for the f ...
Monday, 05 October 09
BANPU EYES INCREASE IN COAL OUTPUT
The Nation reported that, Banpu plans to boost its coal output to 23 million tonnes next year once production begins at the East Block of its Indomi ...
Monday, 05 October 09
COAL TRADING C&O TO INVEST $100 M NEXT YEAR
The Jakarta Post reported that, Coal and Oil (C&0) Group of India plans to invest up to US$100 million in Indonesia next year to acquire coal mi ...
Sunday, 04 October 09
INDONESIAN COAL EXCHANGE FOR PRICE BENCHMARKING IN OFFING
Reuters cited Mr Bob Kamandanu chairman of the Indonesian Coal Producers Association as saying that Indonesia plans to set up a coal exchange to cre ...
Sunday, 04 October 09
GRASIM TO CONSOLIDATE CEMENT BIZ
The Statesman reported that, India's largest cement producer Aditya Birla group today said it would consolidate its cement businesses by merging Gr ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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