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Saturday, 17 October 09
US COAL MINERS LOOKING AT LOWER PROFITS
 Most US coal miners are looking at sharply lower third-quarter earnings, but those that produce coal for steelmaking and export should enjoy higher prices in the longer run than those that sell coal for power generation, analysts say.
Last year's economic downturn hit both steel and electricity demand hard and miners were forced to cut back on production as coal prices slumped. But now there are signs that coal demand, at least from steelmakers, is coming back.
"We generally favor coal producers with international leverage, especially those tied to steel production via metallurgical coal, over thermal coal producers," analyst Jeremy Sussman of Brean Murray, Carret & Co said on Thursday.
And Morgan Stanley's Mark Liinamaa and Wes Sconce said they expected premium hard metallurgical or coking coal for steelmaking to be selling at $160 per tonne in 2010, with prices trending higher through 2013. In June, the benchmark price for coking coal was $129 per tonne.
"Our commodity team sees higher seaborne thermal coal prices going forward but we do not expect demand for U.S. thermal coal exports for the next 12-18 months," the Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note.
In afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, the S&P index of coal stocks .GSPCOAL was down 1,2 percent, with Alpha Natural Resources the biggest loser, down 3 percent at $37,61. Consol Energy fell 2.4 percent to $49,76, Massey Energy fell 1,4 percent to $32,89, Peabody Energy was down 1,3 percent at $41,69 and Arch Coal was off 11 cents at $23,94.
This week, Dahlman Rose & Co downgraded Peabody, Arch and James River Coal to "hold" from "buy," saying the weak outlook for thermal coal does not support current valuations.
Peabody kicks off the earnings season for coal miners next Tuesday, followed by Arch, Consol Energy, Massey Energy and Alpha Natural Resources.
Of those producers, only Consol is seen posting a profit bigger than in the 2008 quarter, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Analysts on average expect Consol's earnings to be 66 cents per share, compared with 49 cents a year earlier.
"Consol has one big met mine (Buchanan, in Virginia) and we expect it to do better than expected as there has been a lot of spot demand from China," said Sussman.
He said Arch had the least metallurgical coal of the major miners and analysts currently expect its profit to be 4 cents per share, way off last year's 68 cents.
Peabody produces coking coal at its Australian mines, but analysts expect a big drop in third-quarter profit from $1,38 per share to 22 cents. Earnings of Massey, which has about 25 percent metallurgical coal, are expected to drop to 18 cents per share from 86 cents a year ago and Alpha's profit is expected to drop to 39 cents from 90 cents a year earlier.
Sussman said lower electricity demand from industry since last year's economic downturn has hurt coal miners that produce thermal or steam coal, which is burned in power plants.
"Inventory levels at utilities are still way too high (70 days, or 50 percent above average) for thermal coal producers to speak positively about the thermal coal market," he said.
According to Edison Electric Institute, for the 52 weeks ended Oct. 10, U.S. power production was down 3.4 percent from the corresponding period in 2008.
"On the other hand, there have been a number of recent positive data points in the met coal space, which should help met coal producers' earnings," said Sussman.
He noted China imported about 8.7 million tonnes of met coal during the third quarter, 30 percent more than in all of 2008. Also, Australia has slowed shipments to China recently and the United States appears to be picking up some of the slack.
"U.S. met coal companies should see a meaningful pickup in activity levels in the second half of the year versus the first half," said Sussman.
Morgan Stanley's analysts said investors seeking exposure to the coking coal upside might consider Cliffs Natural Resources, an iron ore pellet producer, which also operates some coal mines.
"Cliffs' U.S. coking coal mines can grow to 4,5 million tons by 2011, ahead of the market's 3,5 million-ton outlook," Liinamaa and Sconce wrote. Analysts expect Cliffs to report a 6-cent loss in the third quarter, after a $2,13 per-share profit a year ago.
Source: Mining Weekly, Reuters
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Wednesday, 07 October 09
WORLD'S LEADING COAL-BASED PP PROJECT TO BEGIN TRIAL PRODUCTION NEXT YEAR IN NW CHINA
Xinhua Net reported that, a coal-based polypropylene (PP) production project in northwest China, believed to be the world's largest one, is to ...
Wednesday, 07 October 09
INDIA SAIL TO IMPORT 10-11 MLN T COAL IN FY10 - EXEC
Reuters reported that, Steel Authority of India Ltd plans to import 10-11 million tonnes of coal in the current year to March, below last year's 13 ...
Wednesday, 07 October 09
DOMESTIC SHIPPING FIRMS READY FOR NEW RULES ON COAL, INDUSTRY GROUP SAYS
The Jakarta Globe reported that, The domestic coal-shipping sector is ready for the introduction of shipping regulations requiring all power station ...
Wednesday, 07 October 09
CHINESE BANK MAY PULL OUT OF SUMATRA COAL RAILWAY
The Jakarta Globe reported that, The Export-Import Bank of China may pull out of a $1.28 billion South Sumatra coal-railway project with state-owned ...
Wednesday, 07 October 09
COAL INDIA LOOKS AT LONG-TERM PRICE CONTRACTS
Economic Times reported that, Coal India is looking at long-term price contracts, of at least three-four year periods, with foreign entities, 54 of ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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