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Saturday, 17 October 09
US COAL MINERS LOOKING AT LOWER PROFITS
 Most US coal miners are looking at sharply lower third-quarter earnings, but those that produce coal for steelmaking and export should enjoy higher prices in the longer run than those that sell coal for power generation, analysts say.
Last year's economic downturn hit both steel and electricity demand hard and miners were forced to cut back on production as coal prices slumped. But now there are signs that coal demand, at least from steelmakers, is coming back.
"We generally favor coal producers with international leverage, especially those tied to steel production via metallurgical coal, over thermal coal producers," analyst Jeremy Sussman of Brean Murray, Carret & Co said on Thursday.
And Morgan Stanley's Mark Liinamaa and Wes Sconce said they expected premium hard metallurgical or coking coal for steelmaking to be selling at $160 per tonne in 2010, with prices trending higher through 2013. In June, the benchmark price for coking coal was $129 per tonne.
"Our commodity team sees higher seaborne thermal coal prices going forward but we do not expect demand for U.S. thermal coal exports for the next 12-18 months," the Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note.
In afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, the S&P index of coal stocks .GSPCOAL was down 1,2 percent, with Alpha Natural Resources the biggest loser, down 3 percent at $37,61. Consol Energy fell 2.4 percent to $49,76, Massey Energy fell 1,4 percent to $32,89, Peabody Energy was down 1,3 percent at $41,69 and Arch Coal was off 11 cents at $23,94.
This week, Dahlman Rose & Co downgraded Peabody, Arch and James River Coal to "hold" from "buy," saying the weak outlook for thermal coal does not support current valuations.
Peabody kicks off the earnings season for coal miners next Tuesday, followed by Arch, Consol Energy, Massey Energy and Alpha Natural Resources.
Of those producers, only Consol is seen posting a profit bigger than in the 2008 quarter, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Analysts on average expect Consol's earnings to be 66 cents per share, compared with 49 cents a year earlier.
"Consol has one big met mine (Buchanan, in Virginia) and we expect it to do better than expected as there has been a lot of spot demand from China," said Sussman.
He said Arch had the least metallurgical coal of the major miners and analysts currently expect its profit to be 4 cents per share, way off last year's 68 cents.
Peabody produces coking coal at its Australian mines, but analysts expect a big drop in third-quarter profit from $1,38 per share to 22 cents. Earnings of Massey, which has about 25 percent metallurgical coal, are expected to drop to 18 cents per share from 86 cents a year ago and Alpha's profit is expected to drop to 39 cents from 90 cents a year earlier.
Sussman said lower electricity demand from industry since last year's economic downturn has hurt coal miners that produce thermal or steam coal, which is burned in power plants.
"Inventory levels at utilities are still way too high (70 days, or 50 percent above average) for thermal coal producers to speak positively about the thermal coal market," he said.
According to Edison Electric Institute, for the 52 weeks ended Oct. 10, U.S. power production was down 3.4 percent from the corresponding period in 2008.
"On the other hand, there have been a number of recent positive data points in the met coal space, which should help met coal producers' earnings," said Sussman.
He noted China imported about 8.7 million tonnes of met coal during the third quarter, 30 percent more than in all of 2008. Also, Australia has slowed shipments to China recently and the United States appears to be picking up some of the slack.
"U.S. met coal companies should see a meaningful pickup in activity levels in the second half of the year versus the first half," said Sussman.
Morgan Stanley's analysts said investors seeking exposure to the coking coal upside might consider Cliffs Natural Resources, an iron ore pellet producer, which also operates some coal mines.
"Cliffs' U.S. coking coal mines can grow to 4,5 million tons by 2011, ahead of the market's 3,5 million-ton outlook," Liinamaa and Sconce wrote. Analysts expect Cliffs to report a 6-cent loss in the third quarter, after a $2,13 per-share profit a year ago.
Source: Mining Weekly, Reuters
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Wednesday, 14 October 09
SA'S COAL OUTPUT LIKELY TO RISE BY 2011, BOOSTED BY WATERBERG MINES
Mining weekly reported that, South Africa's coal production will struggle to meet demand over the next few years, but coal production could likely ...
Tuesday, 13 October 09
INDONESIA'S BAYAN SEES 2010 COAL OUTPUT UP 42 PCT
Reuters reported that, Indonesian coal miner PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN.JK) said on Tuesday it expects its coal output to increase by 42 percent i ...
Tuesday, 13 October 09
STRAITS ASIA UPBEAT ON MEETING 2009 COAL OUTPUT
Reuters reported that, Singapore-listed coal miner Straits Asia is still optimistic about meeting its coal output target of 9 million tonnes this ye ...
Tuesday, 13 October 09
THERMAL COAL DEMAND IN CHINA DRIVES PRICE INCREASES
Metal Miner reported that, Thermal coal prices have been falling this year; contrary to many other commodities, both metals and energy that hit bott ...
Tuesday, 13 October 09
JSW ENERGY SCOUTING FOR PARTNERS, ACQUISITIONS
Business-Standard reported that, JSW Energy is planning to become an integrated power company by bringing in a partner for its transmission business ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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