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Saturday, 17 October 09
US COAL MINERS LOOKING AT LOWER PROFITS
 Most US coal miners are looking at sharply lower third-quarter earnings, but those that produce coal for steelmaking and export should enjoy higher prices in the longer run than those that sell coal for power generation, analysts say.
Last year's economic downturn hit both steel and electricity demand hard and miners were forced to cut back on production as coal prices slumped. But now there are signs that coal demand, at least from steelmakers, is coming back.
"We generally favor coal producers with international leverage, especially those tied to steel production via metallurgical coal, over thermal coal producers," analyst Jeremy Sussman of Brean Murray, Carret & Co said on Thursday.
And Morgan Stanley's Mark Liinamaa and Wes Sconce said they expected premium hard metallurgical or coking coal for steelmaking to be selling at $160 per tonne in 2010, with prices trending higher through 2013. In June, the benchmark price for coking coal was $129 per tonne.
"Our commodity team sees higher seaborne thermal coal prices going forward but we do not expect demand for U.S. thermal coal exports for the next 12-18 months," the Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note.
In afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, the S&P index of coal stocks .GSPCOAL was down 1,2 percent, with Alpha Natural Resources the biggest loser, down 3 percent at $37,61. Consol Energy fell 2.4 percent to $49,76, Massey Energy fell 1,4 percent to $32,89, Peabody Energy was down 1,3 percent at $41,69 and Arch Coal was off 11 cents at $23,94.
This week, Dahlman Rose & Co downgraded Peabody, Arch and James River Coal to "hold" from "buy," saying the weak outlook for thermal coal does not support current valuations.
Peabody kicks off the earnings season for coal miners next Tuesday, followed by Arch, Consol Energy, Massey Energy and Alpha Natural Resources.
Of those producers, only Consol is seen posting a profit bigger than in the 2008 quarter, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Analysts on average expect Consol's earnings to be 66 cents per share, compared with 49 cents a year earlier.
"Consol has one big met mine (Buchanan, in Virginia) and we expect it to do better than expected as there has been a lot of spot demand from China," said Sussman.
He said Arch had the least metallurgical coal of the major miners and analysts currently expect its profit to be 4 cents per share, way off last year's 68 cents.
Peabody produces coking coal at its Australian mines, but analysts expect a big drop in third-quarter profit from $1,38 per share to 22 cents. Earnings of Massey, which has about 25 percent metallurgical coal, are expected to drop to 18 cents per share from 86 cents a year ago and Alpha's profit is expected to drop to 39 cents from 90 cents a year earlier.
Sussman said lower electricity demand from industry since last year's economic downturn has hurt coal miners that produce thermal or steam coal, which is burned in power plants.
"Inventory levels at utilities are still way too high (70 days, or 50 percent above average) for thermal coal producers to speak positively about the thermal coal market," he said.
According to Edison Electric Institute, for the 52 weeks ended Oct. 10, U.S. power production was down 3.4 percent from the corresponding period in 2008.
"On the other hand, there have been a number of recent positive data points in the met coal space, which should help met coal producers' earnings," said Sussman.
He noted China imported about 8.7 million tonnes of met coal during the third quarter, 30 percent more than in all of 2008. Also, Australia has slowed shipments to China recently and the United States appears to be picking up some of the slack.
"U.S. met coal companies should see a meaningful pickup in activity levels in the second half of the year versus the first half," said Sussman.
Morgan Stanley's analysts said investors seeking exposure to the coking coal upside might consider Cliffs Natural Resources, an iron ore pellet producer, which also operates some coal mines.
"Cliffs' U.S. coking coal mines can grow to 4,5 million tons by 2011, ahead of the market's 3,5 million-ton outlook," Liinamaa and Sconce wrote. Analysts expect Cliffs to report a 6-cent loss in the third quarter, after a $2,13 per-share profit a year ago.
Source: Mining Weekly, Reuters
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Wednesday, 14 October 09
SA'S COAL OUTPUT LIKELY TO RISE BY 2011, BOOSTED BY WATERBERG MINES
Mining weekly reported that, South Africa's coal production will struggle to meet demand over the next few years, but coal production could likely ...
Tuesday, 13 October 09
INDONESIA'S BAYAN SEES 2010 COAL OUTPUT UP 42 PCT
Reuters reported that, Indonesian coal miner PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN.JK) said on Tuesday it expects its coal output to increase by 42 percent i ...
Tuesday, 13 October 09
STRAITS ASIA UPBEAT ON MEETING 2009 COAL OUTPUT
Reuters reported that, Singapore-listed coal miner Straits Asia is still optimistic about meeting its coal output target of 9 million tonnes this ye ...
Tuesday, 13 October 09
THERMAL COAL DEMAND IN CHINA DRIVES PRICE INCREASES
Metal Miner reported that, Thermal coal prices have been falling this year; contrary to many other commodities, both metals and energy that hit bott ...
Tuesday, 13 October 09
JSW ENERGY SCOUTING FOR PARTNERS, ACQUISITIONS
Business-Standard reported that, JSW Energy is planning to become an integrated power company by bringing in a partner for its transmission business ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- The University of Queensland
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