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Saturday, 17 October 09
US COAL MINERS LOOKING AT LOWER PROFITS
 Most US coal miners are looking at sharply lower third-quarter earnings, but those that produce coal for steelmaking and export should enjoy higher prices in the longer run than those that sell coal for power generation, analysts say.
Last year's economic downturn hit both steel and electricity demand hard and miners were forced to cut back on production as coal prices slumped. But now there are signs that coal demand, at least from steelmakers, is coming back.
"We generally favor coal producers with international leverage, especially those tied to steel production via metallurgical coal, over thermal coal producers," analyst Jeremy Sussman of Brean Murray, Carret & Co said on Thursday.
And Morgan Stanley's Mark Liinamaa and Wes Sconce said they expected premium hard metallurgical or coking coal for steelmaking to be selling at $160 per tonne in 2010, with prices trending higher through 2013. In June, the benchmark price for coking coal was $129 per tonne.
"Our commodity team sees higher seaborne thermal coal prices going forward but we do not expect demand for U.S. thermal coal exports for the next 12-18 months," the Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note.
In afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, the S&P index of coal stocks .GSPCOAL was down 1,2 percent, with Alpha Natural Resources the biggest loser, down 3 percent at $37,61. Consol Energy fell 2.4 percent to $49,76, Massey Energy fell 1,4 percent to $32,89, Peabody Energy was down 1,3 percent at $41,69 and Arch Coal was off 11 cents at $23,94.
This week, Dahlman Rose & Co downgraded Peabody, Arch and James River Coal to "hold" from "buy," saying the weak outlook for thermal coal does not support current valuations.
Peabody kicks off the earnings season for coal miners next Tuesday, followed by Arch, Consol Energy, Massey Energy and Alpha Natural Resources.
Of those producers, only Consol is seen posting a profit bigger than in the 2008 quarter, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Analysts on average expect Consol's earnings to be 66 cents per share, compared with 49 cents a year earlier.
"Consol has one big met mine (Buchanan, in Virginia) and we expect it to do better than expected as there has been a lot of spot demand from China," said Sussman.
He said Arch had the least metallurgical coal of the major miners and analysts currently expect its profit to be 4 cents per share, way off last year's 68 cents.
Peabody produces coking coal at its Australian mines, but analysts expect a big drop in third-quarter profit from $1,38 per share to 22 cents. Earnings of Massey, which has about 25 percent metallurgical coal, are expected to drop to 18 cents per share from 86 cents a year ago and Alpha's profit is expected to drop to 39 cents from 90 cents a year earlier.
Sussman said lower electricity demand from industry since last year's economic downturn has hurt coal miners that produce thermal or steam coal, which is burned in power plants.
"Inventory levels at utilities are still way too high (70 days, or 50 percent above average) for thermal coal producers to speak positively about the thermal coal market," he said.
According to Edison Electric Institute, for the 52 weeks ended Oct. 10, U.S. power production was down 3.4 percent from the corresponding period in 2008.
"On the other hand, there have been a number of recent positive data points in the met coal space, which should help met coal producers' earnings," said Sussman.
He noted China imported about 8.7 million tonnes of met coal during the third quarter, 30 percent more than in all of 2008. Also, Australia has slowed shipments to China recently and the United States appears to be picking up some of the slack.
"U.S. met coal companies should see a meaningful pickup in activity levels in the second half of the year versus the first half," said Sussman.
Morgan Stanley's analysts said investors seeking exposure to the coking coal upside might consider Cliffs Natural Resources, an iron ore pellet producer, which also operates some coal mines.
"Cliffs' U.S. coking coal mines can grow to 4,5 million tons by 2011, ahead of the market's 3,5 million-ton outlook," Liinamaa and Sconce wrote. Analysts expect Cliffs to report a 6-cent loss in the third quarter, after a $2,13 per-share profit a year ago.
Source: Mining Weekly, Reuters
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Monday, 12 October 09
INDONESIA TO CUT ROYALTIES TO BOOST LOW QUALITY COAL
Reuters reported that, Indonesia, the world's biggest exporter of thermal coal, plans to cut royalties paid by producers holding certain contracts ...
Monday, 12 October 09
SAMPUR COAL POWER PLANT AGREEMENT
Sunday Observer reported that, The construction work of the Sri Lanka-India joint venture coal power plant which costs US dollars 500 million will c ...
Saturday, 10 October 09
SHORT PERIOD RATES FOR SUPRAMAX WAS AROUND US$ 17,000 PER DAY FOR VESSELS OPENING FAR EAST / SE ASIA - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com (Singapore): The BDI again firmed up this week by almost 14 pct to 2,695 points. The cape size index moved up quite sharply by 25 pct t ...
Saturday, 10 October 09
COAL PRICES TIPPED TO SURGE BY 40% AS GLOBAL DEMAND RECOVERS NEXT YEAR
Power-station coal prices may climb by more than 40 percent in 2010 from current levels as a global economic recovery boosts demand from power plant ...
Saturday, 10 October 09
PT BUMI RESOURCES TO EXPECT 2010 ELECTRIC AND COAL PRICE UP TO US$ 100/T
Indonesia coal producer, PT Bumi Resources recently stated that the revival of the global economy pushes up the demand from power plants and steel m ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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