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Saturday, 17 October 09
US COAL MINERS LOOKING AT LOWER PROFITS
 Most US coal miners are looking at sharply lower third-quarter earnings, but those that produce coal for steelmaking and export should enjoy higher prices in the longer run than those that sell coal for power generation, analysts say.
Last year's economic downturn hit both steel and electricity demand hard and miners were forced to cut back on production as coal prices slumped. But now there are signs that coal demand, at least from steelmakers, is coming back.
"We generally favor coal producers with international leverage, especially those tied to steel production via metallurgical coal, over thermal coal producers," analyst Jeremy Sussman of Brean Murray, Carret & Co said on Thursday.
And Morgan Stanley's Mark Liinamaa and Wes Sconce said they expected premium hard metallurgical or coking coal for steelmaking to be selling at $160 per tonne in 2010, with prices trending higher through 2013. In June, the benchmark price for coking coal was $129 per tonne.
"Our commodity team sees higher seaborne thermal coal prices going forward but we do not expect demand for U.S. thermal coal exports for the next 12-18 months," the Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note.
In afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, the S&P index of coal stocks .GSPCOAL was down 1,2 percent, with Alpha Natural Resources the biggest loser, down 3 percent at $37,61. Consol Energy fell 2.4 percent to $49,76, Massey Energy fell 1,4 percent to $32,89, Peabody Energy was down 1,3 percent at $41,69 and Arch Coal was off 11 cents at $23,94.
This week, Dahlman Rose & Co downgraded Peabody, Arch and James River Coal to "hold" from "buy," saying the weak outlook for thermal coal does not support current valuations.
Peabody kicks off the earnings season for coal miners next Tuesday, followed by Arch, Consol Energy, Massey Energy and Alpha Natural Resources.
Of those producers, only Consol is seen posting a profit bigger than in the 2008 quarter, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Analysts on average expect Consol's earnings to be 66 cents per share, compared with 49 cents a year earlier.
"Consol has one big met mine (Buchanan, in Virginia) and we expect it to do better than expected as there has been a lot of spot demand from China," said Sussman.
He said Arch had the least metallurgical coal of the major miners and analysts currently expect its profit to be 4 cents per share, way off last year's 68 cents.
Peabody produces coking coal at its Australian mines, but analysts expect a big drop in third-quarter profit from $1,38 per share to 22 cents. Earnings of Massey, which has about 25 percent metallurgical coal, are expected to drop to 18 cents per share from 86 cents a year ago and Alpha's profit is expected to drop to 39 cents from 90 cents a year earlier.
Sussman said lower electricity demand from industry since last year's economic downturn has hurt coal miners that produce thermal or steam coal, which is burned in power plants.
"Inventory levels at utilities are still way too high (70 days, or 50 percent above average) for thermal coal producers to speak positively about the thermal coal market," he said.
According to Edison Electric Institute, for the 52 weeks ended Oct. 10, U.S. power production was down 3.4 percent from the corresponding period in 2008.
"On the other hand, there have been a number of recent positive data points in the met coal space, which should help met coal producers' earnings," said Sussman.
He noted China imported about 8.7 million tonnes of met coal during the third quarter, 30 percent more than in all of 2008. Also, Australia has slowed shipments to China recently and the United States appears to be picking up some of the slack.
"U.S. met coal companies should see a meaningful pickup in activity levels in the second half of the year versus the first half," said Sussman.
Morgan Stanley's analysts said investors seeking exposure to the coking coal upside might consider Cliffs Natural Resources, an iron ore pellet producer, which also operates some coal mines.
"Cliffs' U.S. coking coal mines can grow to 4,5 million tons by 2011, ahead of the market's 3,5 million-ton outlook," Liinamaa and Sconce wrote. Analysts expect Cliffs to report a 6-cent loss in the third quarter, after a $2,13 per-share profit a year ago.
Source: Mining Weekly, Reuters
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Monday, 19 October 09
CEMENT UNLIKELY TO COST MORE DESPITE COAL PRICE HIKE
Business-Standard reported that, Cement manufacturers will not immediately hike prices of the construction material, despite a surge in their input ...
Friday, 16 October 09
INDONESIA EXPORTED 19,194,857 MT OF COAL IN SEPTEMBER 2009 - SOURCES
COALspot.com (Indonesia): Indonesia exported 19,194,857 MT of coal in September 2009. Out of total exported quantity, South Korea imported abou ...
Friday, 16 October 09
NAVIGATING THROUGH STORMY WATERS
To Theodore E Veniamis, the President of the Union of Greek Shipowners, the current turmoil in world shipping is due to the cyclical nature of marit ...
Friday, 16 October 09
COAL INDIA RAISES PRICE BY 11%
Trak reported that, State-owned Coal India Ltd (CIL) has raised the price of coal produced by its subsidiaries by an average of 11 percent effective ...
Thursday, 15 October 09
SOUTH AFRICAN MINING COMPANY ACCEPTED $92 MILLION BID FOR COAL MINE STAKE IN SIYANDA COAL
Paguntaka reported that, Sentula Mining Ltd. gained in Johannesburg trading after the South African company accepted a 686 million-rand ($92 million ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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