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Saturday, 17 October 09
US COAL MINERS LOOKING AT LOWER PROFITS
 Most US coal miners are looking at sharply lower third-quarter earnings, but those that produce coal for steelmaking and export should enjoy higher prices in the longer run than those that sell coal for power generation, analysts say.
Last year's economic downturn hit both steel and electricity demand hard and miners were forced to cut back on production as coal prices slumped. But now there are signs that coal demand, at least from steelmakers, is coming back.
"We generally favor coal producers with international leverage, especially those tied to steel production via metallurgical coal, over thermal coal producers," analyst Jeremy Sussman of Brean Murray, Carret & Co said on Thursday.
And Morgan Stanley's Mark Liinamaa and Wes Sconce said they expected premium hard metallurgical or coking coal for steelmaking to be selling at $160 per tonne in 2010, with prices trending higher through 2013. In June, the benchmark price for coking coal was $129 per tonne.
"Our commodity team sees higher seaborne thermal coal prices going forward but we do not expect demand for U.S. thermal coal exports for the next 12-18 months," the Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note.
In afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, the S&P index of coal stocks .GSPCOAL was down 1,2 percent, with Alpha Natural Resources the biggest loser, down 3 percent at $37,61. Consol Energy fell 2.4 percent to $49,76, Massey Energy fell 1,4 percent to $32,89, Peabody Energy was down 1,3 percent at $41,69 and Arch Coal was off 11 cents at $23,94.
This week, Dahlman Rose & Co downgraded Peabody, Arch and James River Coal to "hold" from "buy," saying the weak outlook for thermal coal does not support current valuations.
Peabody kicks off the earnings season for coal miners next Tuesday, followed by Arch, Consol Energy, Massey Energy and Alpha Natural Resources.
Of those producers, only Consol is seen posting a profit bigger than in the 2008 quarter, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Analysts on average expect Consol's earnings to be 66 cents per share, compared with 49 cents a year earlier.
"Consol has one big met mine (Buchanan, in Virginia) and we expect it to do better than expected as there has been a lot of spot demand from China," said Sussman.
He said Arch had the least metallurgical coal of the major miners and analysts currently expect its profit to be 4 cents per share, way off last year's 68 cents.
Peabody produces coking coal at its Australian mines, but analysts expect a big drop in third-quarter profit from $1,38 per share to 22 cents. Earnings of Massey, which has about 25 percent metallurgical coal, are expected to drop to 18 cents per share from 86 cents a year ago and Alpha's profit is expected to drop to 39 cents from 90 cents a year earlier.
Sussman said lower electricity demand from industry since last year's economic downturn has hurt coal miners that produce thermal or steam coal, which is burned in power plants.
"Inventory levels at utilities are still way too high (70 days, or 50 percent above average) for thermal coal producers to speak positively about the thermal coal market," he said.
According to Edison Electric Institute, for the 52 weeks ended Oct. 10, U.S. power production was down 3.4 percent from the corresponding period in 2008.
"On the other hand, there have been a number of recent positive data points in the met coal space, which should help met coal producers' earnings," said Sussman.
He noted China imported about 8.7 million tonnes of met coal during the third quarter, 30 percent more than in all of 2008. Also, Australia has slowed shipments to China recently and the United States appears to be picking up some of the slack.
"U.S. met coal companies should see a meaningful pickup in activity levels in the second half of the year versus the first half," said Sussman.
Morgan Stanley's analysts said investors seeking exposure to the coking coal upside might consider Cliffs Natural Resources, an iron ore pellet producer, which also operates some coal mines.
"Cliffs' U.S. coking coal mines can grow to 4,5 million tons by 2011, ahead of the market's 3,5 million-ton outlook," Liinamaa and Sconce wrote. Analysts expect Cliffs to report a 6-cent loss in the third quarter, after a $2,13 per-share profit a year ago.
Source: Mining Weekly, Reuters
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Monday, 19 October 09
CEMENT UNLIKELY TO COST MORE DESPITE COAL PRICE HIKE
Business-Standard reported that, Cement manufacturers will not immediately hike prices of the construction material, despite a surge in their input ...
Friday, 16 October 09
INDONESIA EXPORTED 19,194,857 MT OF COAL IN SEPTEMBER 2009 - SOURCES
COALspot.com (Indonesia): Indonesia exported 19,194,857 MT of coal in September 2009. Out of total exported quantity, South Korea imported abou ...
Friday, 16 October 09
NAVIGATING THROUGH STORMY WATERS
To Theodore E Veniamis, the President of the Union of Greek Shipowners, the current turmoil in world shipping is due to the cyclical nature of marit ...
Friday, 16 October 09
COAL INDIA RAISES PRICE BY 11%
Trak reported that, State-owned Coal India Ltd (CIL) has raised the price of coal produced by its subsidiaries by an average of 11 percent effective ...
Thursday, 15 October 09
SOUTH AFRICAN MINING COMPANY ACCEPTED $92 MILLION BID FOR COAL MINE STAKE IN SIYANDA COAL
Paguntaka reported that, Sentula Mining Ltd. gained in Johannesburg trading after the South African company accepted a 686 million-rand ($92 million ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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