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Saturday, 17 October 09
US COAL MINERS LOOKING AT LOWER PROFITS
 Most US coal miners are looking at sharply lower third-quarter earnings, but those that produce coal for steelmaking and export should enjoy higher prices in the longer run than those that sell coal for power generation, analysts say.
Last year's economic downturn hit both steel and electricity demand hard and miners were forced to cut back on production as coal prices slumped. But now there are signs that coal demand, at least from steelmakers, is coming back.
"We generally favor coal producers with international leverage, especially those tied to steel production via metallurgical coal, over thermal coal producers," analyst Jeremy Sussman of Brean Murray, Carret & Co said on Thursday.
And Morgan Stanley's Mark Liinamaa and Wes Sconce said they expected premium hard metallurgical or coking coal for steelmaking to be selling at $160 per tonne in 2010, with prices trending higher through 2013. In June, the benchmark price for coking coal was $129 per tonne.
"Our commodity team sees higher seaborne thermal coal prices going forward but we do not expect demand for U.S. thermal coal exports for the next 12-18 months," the Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note.
In afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, the S&P index of coal stocks .GSPCOAL was down 1,2 percent, with Alpha Natural Resources the biggest loser, down 3 percent at $37,61. Consol Energy fell 2.4 percent to $49,76, Massey Energy fell 1,4 percent to $32,89, Peabody Energy was down 1,3 percent at $41,69 and Arch Coal was off 11 cents at $23,94.
This week, Dahlman Rose & Co downgraded Peabody, Arch and James River Coal to "hold" from "buy," saying the weak outlook for thermal coal does not support current valuations.
Peabody kicks off the earnings season for coal miners next Tuesday, followed by Arch, Consol Energy, Massey Energy and Alpha Natural Resources.
Of those producers, only Consol is seen posting a profit bigger than in the 2008 quarter, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Analysts on average expect Consol's earnings to be 66 cents per share, compared with 49 cents a year earlier.
"Consol has one big met mine (Buchanan, in Virginia) and we expect it to do better than expected as there has been a lot of spot demand from China," said Sussman.
He said Arch had the least metallurgical coal of the major miners and analysts currently expect its profit to be 4 cents per share, way off last year's 68 cents.
Peabody produces coking coal at its Australian mines, but analysts expect a big drop in third-quarter profit from $1,38 per share to 22 cents. Earnings of Massey, which has about 25 percent metallurgical coal, are expected to drop to 18 cents per share from 86 cents a year ago and Alpha's profit is expected to drop to 39 cents from 90 cents a year earlier.
Sussman said lower electricity demand from industry since last year's economic downturn has hurt coal miners that produce thermal or steam coal, which is burned in power plants.
"Inventory levels at utilities are still way too high (70 days, or 50 percent above average) for thermal coal producers to speak positively about the thermal coal market," he said.
According to Edison Electric Institute, for the 52 weeks ended Oct. 10, U.S. power production was down 3.4 percent from the corresponding period in 2008.
"On the other hand, there have been a number of recent positive data points in the met coal space, which should help met coal producers' earnings," said Sussman.
He noted China imported about 8.7 million tonnes of met coal during the third quarter, 30 percent more than in all of 2008. Also, Australia has slowed shipments to China recently and the United States appears to be picking up some of the slack.
"U.S. met coal companies should see a meaningful pickup in activity levels in the second half of the year versus the first half," said Sussman.
Morgan Stanley's analysts said investors seeking exposure to the coking coal upside might consider Cliffs Natural Resources, an iron ore pellet producer, which also operates some coal mines.
"Cliffs' U.S. coking coal mines can grow to 4,5 million tons by 2011, ahead of the market's 3,5 million-ton outlook," Liinamaa and Sconce wrote. Analysts expect Cliffs to report a 6-cent loss in the third quarter, after a $2,13 per-share profit a year ago.
Source: Mining Weekly, Reuters
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Tuesday, 20 October 09
RECAPITAL SET TO BUY INDONESIA'S BERAU COAL - SOURCES
* COULD PAY AT LEAST $1.3 BLN FOR BERAU - SOURCES
* RECAPITAL CONFIRMS IT HAS BID FOR BERAU
* BAKRIE GROUP LIKELY TO BACK BID – SOURCES
...
Tuesday, 20 October 09
COAL PRICES TO SURGE IN 2010 DESPITE AMPLE SUPPLY
Commodity Online reported that, Coal prices are indeed destined to go higher as they follow the rise of ‘coal currencies’ such as Austra ...
Tuesday, 20 October 09
INDIA MAY CUT STAKE IN NTPC BY DECEMBER, POWER SECRETARY SAYS
Bloomberg reported that, India’s government may sell a 5 percent stake in NTPC Ltd., the country’s biggest power producer, as early as D ...
Monday, 19 October 09
COAL PRICE UP AGAIN - RICHARDS BAY TERMINAL
Export prices rose 45 cents, or 0.7%, to an average of 64.05 a metric ton in the week ended Oct. 16, according to McCloskey Group.
The week was & ...
Monday, 19 October 09
COAL MINISTRY SEEKS EXPLANATION FROM AP GENCO
The Hindu Business reported that, the Coal Ministry has asked the Power Generation Corporation of Andhra Pradesh (AP Genco) to explain why there was ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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