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Saturday, 17 October 09
US COAL MINERS LOOKING AT LOWER PROFITS
Most US coal miners are looking at sharply lower third-quarter earnings, but those that produce coal for steelmaking and export should enjoy higher prices in the longer run than those that sell coal for power generation, analysts say.
Last year's economic downturn hit both steel and electricity demand hard and miners were forced to cut back on production as coal prices slumped. But now there are signs that coal demand, at least from steelmakers, is coming back.
"We generally favor coal producers with international leverage, especially those tied to steel production via metallurgical coal, over thermal coal producers," analyst Jeremy Sussman of Brean Murray, Carret & Co said on Thursday.
And Morgan Stanley's Mark Liinamaa and Wes Sconce said they expected premium hard metallurgical or coking coal for steelmaking to be selling at $160 per tonne in 2010, with prices trending higher through 2013. In June, the benchmark price for coking coal was $129 per tonne.
"Our commodity team sees higher seaborne thermal coal prices going forward but we do not expect demand for U.S. thermal coal exports for the next 12-18 months," the Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note.
In afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, the S&P index of coal stocks .GSPCOAL was down 1,2 percent, with Alpha Natural Resources the biggest loser, down 3 percent at $37,61. Consol Energy fell 2.4 percent to $49,76, Massey Energy fell 1,4 percent to $32,89, Peabody Energy was down 1,3 percent at $41,69 and Arch Coal was off 11 cents at $23,94.
This week, Dahlman Rose & Co downgraded Peabody, Arch and James River Coal to "hold" from "buy," saying the weak outlook for thermal coal does not support current valuations.
Peabody kicks off the earnings season for coal miners next Tuesday, followed by Arch, Consol Energy, Massey Energy and Alpha Natural Resources.
Of those producers, only Consol is seen posting a profit bigger than in the 2008 quarter, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Analysts on average expect Consol's earnings to be 66 cents per share, compared with 49 cents a year earlier.
"Consol has one big met mine (Buchanan, in Virginia) and we expect it to do better than expected as there has been a lot of spot demand from China," said Sussman.
He said Arch had the least metallurgical coal of the major miners and analysts currently expect its profit to be 4 cents per share, way off last year's 68 cents.
Peabody produces coking coal at its Australian mines, but analysts expect a big drop in third-quarter profit from $1,38 per share to 22 cents. Earnings of Massey, which has about 25 percent metallurgical coal, are expected to drop to 18 cents per share from 86 cents a year ago and Alpha's profit is expected to drop to 39 cents from 90 cents a year earlier.
Sussman said lower electricity demand from industry since last year's economic downturn has hurt coal miners that produce thermal or steam coal, which is burned in power plants.
"Inventory levels at utilities are still way too high (70 days, or 50 percent above average) for thermal coal producers to speak positively about the thermal coal market," he said.
According to Edison Electric Institute, for the 52 weeks ended Oct. 10, U.S. power production was down 3.4 percent from the corresponding period in 2008.
"On the other hand, there have been a number of recent positive data points in the met coal space, which should help met coal producers' earnings," said Sussman.
He noted China imported about 8.7 million tonnes of met coal during the third quarter, 30 percent more than in all of 2008. Also, Australia has slowed shipments to China recently and the United States appears to be picking up some of the slack.
"U.S. met coal companies should see a meaningful pickup in activity levels in the second half of the year versus the first half," said Sussman.
Morgan Stanley's analysts said investors seeking exposure to the coking coal upside might consider Cliffs Natural Resources, an iron ore pellet producer, which also operates some coal mines.
"Cliffs' U.S. coking coal mines can grow to 4,5 million tons by 2011, ahead of the market's 3,5 million-ton outlook," Liinamaa and Sconce wrote. Analysts expect Cliffs to report a 6-cent loss in the third quarter, after a $2,13 per-share profit a year ago.
Source: Mining Weekly, Reuters
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Saturday, 24 October 09
NTPC SEEKS ALTERNATE COAL SUPPLY FOR KAHALGAON
State-run NTPC is looking at alternate sources of coal to fire its Kahalgaon (Bihar) and Farakka (West Bengal) and power stations, which are facing ...
Saturday, 24 October 09
ADANI, MMTC IN RACE TO SUPPLY COAL TO GSECL
Business-Standard reported that, as many as five companies are in fray to supply 15 lakh (1.5 million) metric tonnes of non-coking steam (ther ...
Saturday, 24 October 09
INDONESIA STATE POWER FIRM PLANS TO DELAY COAL SUPPLIES
Indonesia's state-controlled electricity company is negotiating with two coal producing firms to delay plans to supply coal to a power plant in Wes ...
Friday, 23 October 09
MONGOLIA LISTS 8 POTENTIAL BIDDERS FOR COAL PROJECT
Reuters reported that, Mongolia has shortlisted eight potential partners for its huge Tavan Tolgoi coking coal project, according to Temuulen Ganzor ...
Friday, 23 October 09
2010 WILL BE 'BRIDGE YEAR' FOR COAL - CONSOL CHIEF
Mining Weekly reported that, After a difficult 2009, 2010 will likely be a “bridge” year for the US coal industry, followed by improved ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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