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Saturday, 17 October 09
US COAL MINERS LOOKING AT LOWER PROFITS
 Most US coal miners are looking at sharply lower third-quarter earnings, but those that produce coal for steelmaking and export should enjoy higher prices in the longer run than those that sell coal for power generation, analysts say.
Last year's economic downturn hit both steel and electricity demand hard and miners were forced to cut back on production as coal prices slumped. But now there are signs that coal demand, at least from steelmakers, is coming back.
"We generally favor coal producers with international leverage, especially those tied to steel production via metallurgical coal, over thermal coal producers," analyst Jeremy Sussman of Brean Murray, Carret & Co said on Thursday.
And Morgan Stanley's Mark Liinamaa and Wes Sconce said they expected premium hard metallurgical or coking coal for steelmaking to be selling at $160 per tonne in 2010, with prices trending higher through 2013. In June, the benchmark price for coking coal was $129 per tonne.
"Our commodity team sees higher seaborne thermal coal prices going forward but we do not expect demand for U.S. thermal coal exports for the next 12-18 months," the Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note.
In afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, the S&P index of coal stocks .GSPCOAL was down 1,2 percent, with Alpha Natural Resources the biggest loser, down 3 percent at $37,61. Consol Energy fell 2.4 percent to $49,76, Massey Energy fell 1,4 percent to $32,89, Peabody Energy was down 1,3 percent at $41,69 and Arch Coal was off 11 cents at $23,94.
This week, Dahlman Rose & Co downgraded Peabody, Arch and James River Coal to "hold" from "buy," saying the weak outlook for thermal coal does not support current valuations.
Peabody kicks off the earnings season for coal miners next Tuesday, followed by Arch, Consol Energy, Massey Energy and Alpha Natural Resources.
Of those producers, only Consol is seen posting a profit bigger than in the 2008 quarter, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Analysts on average expect Consol's earnings to be 66 cents per share, compared with 49 cents a year earlier.
"Consol has one big met mine (Buchanan, in Virginia) and we expect it to do better than expected as there has been a lot of spot demand from China," said Sussman.
He said Arch had the least metallurgical coal of the major miners and analysts currently expect its profit to be 4 cents per share, way off last year's 68 cents.
Peabody produces coking coal at its Australian mines, but analysts expect a big drop in third-quarter profit from $1,38 per share to 22 cents. Earnings of Massey, which has about 25 percent metallurgical coal, are expected to drop to 18 cents per share from 86 cents a year ago and Alpha's profit is expected to drop to 39 cents from 90 cents a year earlier.
Sussman said lower electricity demand from industry since last year's economic downturn has hurt coal miners that produce thermal or steam coal, which is burned in power plants.
"Inventory levels at utilities are still way too high (70 days, or 50 percent above average) for thermal coal producers to speak positively about the thermal coal market," he said.
According to Edison Electric Institute, for the 52 weeks ended Oct. 10, U.S. power production was down 3.4 percent from the corresponding period in 2008.
"On the other hand, there have been a number of recent positive data points in the met coal space, which should help met coal producers' earnings," said Sussman.
He noted China imported about 8.7 million tonnes of met coal during the third quarter, 30 percent more than in all of 2008. Also, Australia has slowed shipments to China recently and the United States appears to be picking up some of the slack.
"U.S. met coal companies should see a meaningful pickup in activity levels in the second half of the year versus the first half," said Sussman.
Morgan Stanley's analysts said investors seeking exposure to the coking coal upside might consider Cliffs Natural Resources, an iron ore pellet producer, which also operates some coal mines.
"Cliffs' U.S. coking coal mines can grow to 4,5 million tons by 2011, ahead of the market's 3,5 million-ton outlook," Liinamaa and Sconce wrote. Analysts expect Cliffs to report a 6-cent loss in the third quarter, after a $2,13 per-share profit a year ago.
Source: Mining Weekly, Reuters
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Wednesday, 28 October 09
MIDDLE EAST COAL EYEING INDIAN POWER PLANTS IN EXCHANGE FOR LONG TERM COAL SUPPLY
Reuters reported that UAE's Middle East Coal is in talks to buy equity stakes in India's power plants in exchange for long term coal supply.
ME ...
Wednesday, 28 October 09
INVESTMENT IN MINING SECTOR HAMPERED BY LATE REGULATIONS
The Jakarta Post reported that, Indonesia may have to wait for a potential massive inflow of new investment into the mining sector due to delays in ...
Tuesday, 27 October 09
CHINA'S SEPT. COAL IMPORTS RISE AS ECONOMY RECOVERS
Bloomberg reported that, China, the world’s largest coal user and producer, increased imports of the fuel in September to meet rising domest ...
Monday, 26 October 09
DARWIN EYES PRIVATE INVESTMENT
The Jakarta Post reported that, the new energy and ministerial resources minister, Darwin Zahedy Saleh, has set his sights on accelerating the reali ...
Sunday, 25 October 09
THE FUTURE FREIGHT MARKET IS EXPECTED TO HAVE POSITIVE DIRECTION - VISTAAR
COALspot.com (Singapore): According to Vistaar Shipping an experienced ship operator in Singapore, the BDI shot up this week (19-24 October) by abou ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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