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Saturday, 17 October 09
US COAL MINERS LOOKING AT LOWER PROFITS
 Most US coal miners are looking at sharply lower third-quarter earnings, but those that produce coal for steelmaking and export should enjoy higher prices in the longer run than those that sell coal for power generation, analysts say.
Last year's economic downturn hit both steel and electricity demand hard and miners were forced to cut back on production as coal prices slumped. But now there are signs that coal demand, at least from steelmakers, is coming back.
"We generally favor coal producers with international leverage, especially those tied to steel production via metallurgical coal, over thermal coal producers," analyst Jeremy Sussman of Brean Murray, Carret & Co said on Thursday.
And Morgan Stanley's Mark Liinamaa and Wes Sconce said they expected premium hard metallurgical or coking coal for steelmaking to be selling at $160 per tonne in 2010, with prices trending higher through 2013. In June, the benchmark price for coking coal was $129 per tonne.
"Our commodity team sees higher seaborne thermal coal prices going forward but we do not expect demand for U.S. thermal coal exports for the next 12-18 months," the Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note.
In afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, the S&P index of coal stocks .GSPCOAL was down 1,2 percent, with Alpha Natural Resources the biggest loser, down 3 percent at $37,61. Consol Energy fell 2.4 percent to $49,76, Massey Energy fell 1,4 percent to $32,89, Peabody Energy was down 1,3 percent at $41,69 and Arch Coal was off 11 cents at $23,94.
This week, Dahlman Rose & Co downgraded Peabody, Arch and James River Coal to "hold" from "buy," saying the weak outlook for thermal coal does not support current valuations.
Peabody kicks off the earnings season for coal miners next Tuesday, followed by Arch, Consol Energy, Massey Energy and Alpha Natural Resources.
Of those producers, only Consol is seen posting a profit bigger than in the 2008 quarter, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Analysts on average expect Consol's earnings to be 66 cents per share, compared with 49 cents a year earlier.
"Consol has one big met mine (Buchanan, in Virginia) and we expect it to do better than expected as there has been a lot of spot demand from China," said Sussman.
He said Arch had the least metallurgical coal of the major miners and analysts currently expect its profit to be 4 cents per share, way off last year's 68 cents.
Peabody produces coking coal at its Australian mines, but analysts expect a big drop in third-quarter profit from $1,38 per share to 22 cents. Earnings of Massey, which has about 25 percent metallurgical coal, are expected to drop to 18 cents per share from 86 cents a year ago and Alpha's profit is expected to drop to 39 cents from 90 cents a year earlier.
Sussman said lower electricity demand from industry since last year's economic downturn has hurt coal miners that produce thermal or steam coal, which is burned in power plants.
"Inventory levels at utilities are still way too high (70 days, or 50 percent above average) for thermal coal producers to speak positively about the thermal coal market," he said.
According to Edison Electric Institute, for the 52 weeks ended Oct. 10, U.S. power production was down 3.4 percent from the corresponding period in 2008.
"On the other hand, there have been a number of recent positive data points in the met coal space, which should help met coal producers' earnings," said Sussman.
He noted China imported about 8.7 million tonnes of met coal during the third quarter, 30 percent more than in all of 2008. Also, Australia has slowed shipments to China recently and the United States appears to be picking up some of the slack.
"U.S. met coal companies should see a meaningful pickup in activity levels in the second half of the year versus the first half," said Sussman.
Morgan Stanley's analysts said investors seeking exposure to the coking coal upside might consider Cliffs Natural Resources, an iron ore pellet producer, which also operates some coal mines.
"Cliffs' U.S. coking coal mines can grow to 4,5 million tons by 2011, ahead of the market's 3,5 million-ton outlook," Liinamaa and Sconce wrote. Analysts expect Cliffs to report a 6-cent loss in the third quarter, after a $2,13 per-share profit a year ago.
Source: Mining Weekly, Reuters
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Thursday, 29 October 09
INDIA CEMENTS SET TO ACQUIRE COAL MINE IN INDONESIA
Business-Standard reported that, India Cements is set to acquire a coal mine in Indonesia for around $20 million (around Rs 100 crore). The company ...
Thursday, 29 October 09
PTC INDIA UNIT CHASES 2.5 MTPA INDONESIAN COAL
Reuters reported that, PTC Energy is in talks with an Indonesian firm to source 2.5 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) coal for its 350-400 MW power to ...
Thursday, 29 October 09
CHINA MAY SEEK THERMAL COAL ELSEWHERE IF AUSTRALIAN EXPORT COSTS RISE, SAYS REPORT
The Australian reported that, CHINA is likely to turn to alternative markets for thermal coal if the cost and availability of Australia's exports a ...
Thursday, 29 October 09
CURRENCIES, ASIA DEMAND TO LIFT EUROPE COAL PRICE
Supportive currency movements and strong Asian demand mean the price of coal delivered into Europe is poised to rise more than 30 percent to above $ ...
Wednesday, 28 October 09
AUSTRALIAN POWER STATION COAL PRICE TOPPED USD 73 A TONNE
Reuters reported that prices of power station coal in Australia, a benchmark for Asia, crept up for the fourth week and topped USD 73 a tonne, as a ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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