We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 15 January 20
PREDICTIONS FOR 2020: 'SLOWBALISATION" IS THE NEW GLOBALISATION - PWC
 Projecting what the future holds is an important exercise for businesses looking to plan ahead. Below we present a summary of some of the themes we assess will likely prevail in the global economy in 2020.
Trading goods across borders will likely remain tense…: A defining feature of the global economy since at least the 1970’s has been globalisation—the bringing together of economies predominantly via more liberal trade flows. The global volume of merchandise traded slowed down dramatically and even went in reverse in 2019 in contrast to a 21st century average growth rate of about 3.4% per annum*. Also, in December 2019 the World Trade Organization’s (“WTO”) dispute settlement mechanism was effectively disbanded. We expect this trend to continue in 2020 and for trade tensions in the global goods market to persist. This means that we assess globalisation is likely give way to ‘slowbalisation’ i.e. continued integration of the global economy via trade, financial and other flows but albeit at a significantly slower pace. Large businesses with sophisticated supply chains spread across the world should therefore plan for a variety of scenarios, some of which have not been experienced in recent history.
…but global services trade expected to hit US$7 trillion: One aspect of trade that is often neglected is trade in services, which is now about one third of the size of the global volume of merchandise trade. In contrast to goods, services remain largely unaffected from tariff wars. The latest 2018 data from the International Trade Centre (“ITC”) shows that the global export of services was worth about US$5.8 trillion, or around 3.5% of global GDP. We expect the total value of services exported to hit a record US$7 trillion by 2020. Assuming historic trends continue, the US and UK are likely to remain the first and second largest exporters of services in the world in US Dollar terms. But in yet another reminder of the shift of the centre of economic power from the West to the East we expect China to overtake France in 2020 and become the world’s fourth largest services exporter.
Global economy is expected to grow at a modest pace: Figure 1 shows that growth in merchandise trade flows and the global economy have been intrinsically linked. In our main scenario for 2020, we expect the global economy to expand at a rate of around 3.2% in purchasing power parity (“PPP”) terms which is below the 21st century average of 3.8% per annum. In our main scenario, we expect all of the major economies to grow, buoyed, in part, by accommodative financial conditions. US economic activity is likely to expand by around 2%, in line with its potential rate. Given the historically low unemployment rate, US employers, however, find it increasingly difficult to hire staff. Across the pond, the Eurozone is expected to grow at approximately half that rate (i.e. around 1%). Germany, and other economies that are sensitive to global trade flows, to become more reliant on household consumption as a source of growth instead of net exports and investment. For Germany, however, this could be challenging as households tend to save more than the European average. In the emerging world, we expect the Chinese economy to expand by less than 6%– but it can still add the equivalent of Saudi Arabia to the world economy in one year. The world’s six other largest emerging economies, including Turkey, should also grow in this scenario, with India leading the way.
Predictions for 2020
More jobs across the board but not necessarily spread equitably
We expect the G7 to continue to create jobs, to the tune of around 2 million. Four out of the five new jobs in the G7 will be created in the US, UK and Japan. As the pool of labour resources in the G7 gradually dries up, we assess earnings should continue their upward trajectory. But in the absence of productivity improvements, corporate profit margins could be squeezed. Similarly, the International Labour Organization (“ILO”) expects the seven largest emerging economies– the E7–to create about 8 million jobs in net terms. There are some exceptions to this– Russia and China are likely to experience a shrinking workforce because of demographic pressures. Finally, the ILO’s employment projections for the G7 show that jobs are likely to be taken up by men and women in equal measure. Within the E7, however, the ILO expects job creations to be less evenly distributed across genders.
India expected to rise in global economic rankings
According to the IMF’s latest estimates, 2019 was the year when India overtook the UK and France to become the fifth largest economy in the world. This is an ongoing process with India likely on current trends to overtake Germany before 2025 and Japan before 2030 to become the world’s largest economy behind China and the US. France and the UK will likely now vie for sixth place in the rankings, with their relative position dependent on the value of the pound against the euro which may remain volatile in 2020.
Germany may need to choose between ‘lower for longer’ interest rates or higher fiscal spending
The US is expected to run a US$1.2 trillion government deficit. The Eurozone, which is about the same size as the US economy will run a government deficit about 1/10 the size of the US. In fact, we expect almost half of the Eurozone member states to run a government budget surplus in 2020. Cyprus, Luxembourg and Germany are expected to run the largest surplus relative to their economic size while France and Italy are expected to be on the opposite end of the spectrum with continuing budget deficits. Germany is likely to come under renewed pressure to either increase its government spending or accept ‘lower for longer’ interest rates (see Figure 3). Further afield, of the Gulf Cooperation Council (“GCC”) countries, we only expect Qatar to run a government surplus in 2020. This could mean more policy action in the future to balance government budgets across the GCC.
US oil production expected to hit record levels
Global renewable energy and nuclear consumption will likely make up more than 20% of global energy consumption, which is the highest it has ever been. The rise of renewable energy reflects how businesses, households and governments are adapting and changing their attitudes. China is expected to be the largest consumer of this type of energy closely followed by Europe. However, oil is expected to continue to remain the most preferred source of energy in 2020 for the world economy followed by coal and natural gas. The US and China will almost certainly remain the largest consumers of oil in the world in 2020. In so far as the extraction and supply of oil (and other liquid forms of energy) is concerned the US may surpass the monthly 13 million barrels per day (“b/d”) threshold. To set into context, in the US crude oil was extracted at a rate of 5.5 million b/d 10 years ago.
Global population biggest it has ever been but also the greyest
According to the United Nations (“UN”), In 2020, the world’s population is expected to reach 7.7 billion, which is around a 10% increase compared to a decade ago. China, India and SubSaharan Africa are expected to drive around half of the world’s annual population increase. At the same time, the number of people above the age of 60 globally is expected to surpass the one billion mark. China is expected to have a larger number of people above the age of 65 than all the six other largest emerging economies put together. This calls into question how policymakers respond to this trend and fund future health and social care. This could also be an opportunity for businesses in advanced economies, who have been dealing with such issues for decades. In relative terms i.e. the proportion of people above the age of 65 relative to the country’s entire population, Japan is expected to remain the ‘greyest’ country in the world and Niger is expected to be the youngest.
Source: PWC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
DRY BULK MARKET: "THIS IS NOT THE END OF COAL" SAYS IEA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A historic drop in coal-fired electricity generation will not sway global coal demand from its upward trajectory through to 2024, though growth wil ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
ARE YOU 95% CONFIDENT THAT YOUR VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL IS ON SPEC AND MARPOL COMPLIANT? - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bunker fuel is a commodity and, like all commodities, is produced and sold according to specifications. Bunkers are usual ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
NEW PRICING COULD SPELL TROUBLE FOR CHINA'S COAL SECTOR - CHINA DIALOGUE
Benchmark coal tariffs have been the foundation of China’s electricity pricing since 2004 but this mechanism was replaced on January 1 with a ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
BALTIC BRIEFING TANKER REPORT - WEEK 2
VLCC
Escalating tensions between the USA and Iran, in addition to a continuing strong market, made for an interesting week, with rates firming ...
|
|
|
Showing 1196 to 1200 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
