We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 15 January 20
PREDICTIONS FOR 2020: 'SLOWBALISATION" IS THE NEW GLOBALISATION - PWC
 Projecting what the future holds is an important exercise for businesses looking to plan ahead. Below we present a summary of some of the themes we assess will likely prevail in the global economy in 2020.
Trading goods across borders will likely remain tense…: A defining feature of the global economy since at least the 1970’s has been globalisation—the bringing together of economies predominantly via more liberal trade flows. The global volume of merchandise traded slowed down dramatically and even went in reverse in 2019 in contrast to a 21st century average growth rate of about 3.4% per annum*. Also, in December 2019 the World Trade Organization’s (“WTO”) dispute settlement mechanism was effectively disbanded. We expect this trend to continue in 2020 and for trade tensions in the global goods market to persist. This means that we assess globalisation is likely give way to ‘slowbalisation’ i.e. continued integration of the global economy via trade, financial and other flows but albeit at a significantly slower pace. Large businesses with sophisticated supply chains spread across the world should therefore plan for a variety of scenarios, some of which have not been experienced in recent history.
…but global services trade expected to hit US$7 trillion: One aspect of trade that is often neglected is trade in services, which is now about one third of the size of the global volume of merchandise trade. In contrast to goods, services remain largely unaffected from tariff wars. The latest 2018 data from the International Trade Centre (“ITC”) shows that the global export of services was worth about US$5.8 trillion, or around 3.5% of global GDP. We expect the total value of services exported to hit a record US$7 trillion by 2020. Assuming historic trends continue, the US and UK are likely to remain the first and second largest exporters of services in the world in US Dollar terms. But in yet another reminder of the shift of the centre of economic power from the West to the East we expect China to overtake France in 2020 and become the world’s fourth largest services exporter.
Global economy is expected to grow at a modest pace: Figure 1 shows that growth in merchandise trade flows and the global economy have been intrinsically linked. In our main scenario for 2020, we expect the global economy to expand at a rate of around 3.2% in purchasing power parity (“PPP”) terms which is below the 21st century average of 3.8% per annum. In our main scenario, we expect all of the major economies to grow, buoyed, in part, by accommodative financial conditions. US economic activity is likely to expand by around 2%, in line with its potential rate. Given the historically low unemployment rate, US employers, however, find it increasingly difficult to hire staff. Across the pond, the Eurozone is expected to grow at approximately half that rate (i.e. around 1%). Germany, and other economies that are sensitive to global trade flows, to become more reliant on household consumption as a source of growth instead of net exports and investment. For Germany, however, this could be challenging as households tend to save more than the European average. In the emerging world, we expect the Chinese economy to expand by less than 6%– but it can still add the equivalent of Saudi Arabia to the world economy in one year. The world’s six other largest emerging economies, including Turkey, should also grow in this scenario, with India leading the way.
Predictions for 2020
More jobs across the board but not necessarily spread equitably
We expect the G7 to continue to create jobs, to the tune of around 2 million. Four out of the five new jobs in the G7 will be created in the US, UK and Japan. As the pool of labour resources in the G7 gradually dries up, we assess earnings should continue their upward trajectory. But in the absence of productivity improvements, corporate profit margins could be squeezed. Similarly, the International Labour Organization (“ILO”) expects the seven largest emerging economies– the E7–to create about 8 million jobs in net terms. There are some exceptions to this– Russia and China are likely to experience a shrinking workforce because of demographic pressures. Finally, the ILO’s employment projections for the G7 show that jobs are likely to be taken up by men and women in equal measure. Within the E7, however, the ILO expects job creations to be less evenly distributed across genders.
India expected to rise in global economic rankings
According to the IMF’s latest estimates, 2019 was the year when India overtook the UK and France to become the fifth largest economy in the world. This is an ongoing process with India likely on current trends to overtake Germany before 2025 and Japan before 2030 to become the world’s largest economy behind China and the US. France and the UK will likely now vie for sixth place in the rankings, with their relative position dependent on the value of the pound against the euro which may remain volatile in 2020.
Germany may need to choose between ‘lower for longer’ interest rates or higher fiscal spending
The US is expected to run a US$1.2 trillion government deficit. The Eurozone, which is about the same size as the US economy will run a government deficit about 1/10 the size of the US. In fact, we expect almost half of the Eurozone member states to run a government budget surplus in 2020. Cyprus, Luxembourg and Germany are expected to run the largest surplus relative to their economic size while France and Italy are expected to be on the opposite end of the spectrum with continuing budget deficits. Germany is likely to come under renewed pressure to either increase its government spending or accept ‘lower for longer’ interest rates (see Figure 3). Further afield, of the Gulf Cooperation Council (“GCC”) countries, we only expect Qatar to run a government surplus in 2020. This could mean more policy action in the future to balance government budgets across the GCC.
US oil production expected to hit record levels
Global renewable energy and nuclear consumption will likely make up more than 20% of global energy consumption, which is the highest it has ever been. The rise of renewable energy reflects how businesses, households and governments are adapting and changing their attitudes. China is expected to be the largest consumer of this type of energy closely followed by Europe. However, oil is expected to continue to remain the most preferred source of energy in 2020 for the world economy followed by coal and natural gas. The US and China will almost certainly remain the largest consumers of oil in the world in 2020. In so far as the extraction and supply of oil (and other liquid forms of energy) is concerned the US may surpass the monthly 13 million barrels per day (“b/d”) threshold. To set into context, in the US crude oil was extracted at a rate of 5.5 million b/d 10 years ago.
Global population biggest it has ever been but also the greyest
According to the United Nations (“UN”), In 2020, the world’s population is expected to reach 7.7 billion, which is around a 10% increase compared to a decade ago. China, India and SubSaharan Africa are expected to drive around half of the world’s annual population increase. At the same time, the number of people above the age of 60 globally is expected to surpass the one billion mark. China is expected to have a larger number of people above the age of 65 than all the six other largest emerging economies put together. This calls into question how policymakers respond to this trend and fund future health and social care. This could also be an opportunity for businesses in advanced economies, who have been dealing with such issues for decades. In relative terms i.e. the proportion of people above the age of 65 relative to the country’s entire population, Japan is expected to remain the ‘greyest’ country in the world and Niger is expected to be the youngest.
Source: PWC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 08 January 20
WHAT IS BIMCO THINKING ABOUT 2020? - BIMCO
Every year, BIMCO considers what is in store for the shipping industry and for BIMCO in the coming years, while also reflecting on the year gone by ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
VINACOMIN SETS TO SELL 49 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2020 - VIETNAM NET
The Vietnam National Coal-Mineral Industries Holding Corporation Limited (Vinacomin) has set to sell 49 million tonnes of coal in 2020, a year-on-y ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE CUTS 18.95 MLN TONNES OF CAPACITY IN 2019 - XINHUA
North China’s Shanxi Province reduced its coal production capacity by 18.95 million tonnes by closing 18 coal mines in 2019.
A ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
JANUARY INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS US$ 0.37 MOM
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Tuesday, 07 January 20
CLEANER AIR IN 2020: 0.5% SULPHUR CAP FOR SHIPS ENTERS INTO FORCE WORLDWIDE - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
From 1 January 2020, the maximum sulphur content of marine fuels is reduced to 0.5% (down from 3.5%) globally – reducing air pollution and pr ...
|
|
|
Showing 1206 to 1210 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
|
| |
| |
|
