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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 30 March 18
SHIPPING INDUSTRY CONFIDENCE HITS FOUR-YEAR HIGH - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping Confidence Survey
In February 2018, the average confidence level expressed by respondents was up from 6.2 in November 2017 t ...
Friday, 30 March 18
EXPLAINING POLAND'S COAL PARADOX - FORBES
In the U.S. coal is succumbing to market forces despite the Trump Administration’s push to support the industry. Abundant, cheap and cleaner ...
Friday, 30 March 18
THIESS SECURES $140M MT OWEN INCREASE
Thiess has secured a A$140 million increase to its contract with Glencore for coal mining services at Mt Owen in the Hunter Valley, Australia. Mt O ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
THIESS WINS $280M WAHANA EXTENSION
Thiess has been awarded a three-year $280 million contract extension at the Wahana coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
According to Thie ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
RIO TINTO TO SELL KESTREL MINE FOR $2.25 BILLION - REUTERS
Rio Tinto sold its remaining coal asset Kestrel in Australia to private equity manager EMR Capital and Indonesia’s Adaro Energy Tbk for $2.25 ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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